- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- key policy rate
- 5.75%
The Executive Board of the National Bank of Serbia kept the reference rate at 5.75 percent on 11 December 2025, leaving deposit and lending facility rates at 4.5 percent and 7.0 percent, citing inflation that slipped to 2.9 percent y/y in September and 2.8 percent in October—near the 3 percent midpoint of the 3 ± 1.5 pp target—and is projected to stay within target through 2026 despite firmer household incomes and a low base. After three 25 bp cuts in 2024 (the last in September), the policy rate has been unchanged throughout 2025. The central bank continues to support activity by preserving dinar stability and fostering favourable credit conditions, measures that helped lift lending to firms and households by 13.1 percent y/y in October. GDP expanded 2.0 percent y/y in Q3, and the Board foresees 2.1 percent growth in 2025 and 3.5 percent in 2026, while warning that refinery stoppages, potential curbs on oil and basic-metal exports and softer confidence could dampen the outlook. Externally, heightened tariffs, rising protectionism and geopolitical tensions keep global commodity and financial markets volatile as the US Federal Reserve continues to cut rates and the European Central Bank signals an extended pause. The Board will decide policy “meeting by meeting” to preserve price and financial stability, with the next rate-setting session on 12 January 2026.
Rate evolution
From June 2025 through September 2026, the National Bank of Serbia kept the key policy rate unchanged at 5.75%, extending a pause with no net change. The hold reflected actual and expected inflation and uncertainty, which eased in early autumn before worsening again, with mid-2025 decisions balancing weather- and drought-driven food inflation and an oil-price rise from Middle East tensions against softer domestic activity, while later decisions judged that the Government’s margin-capping decree, lower imported cost pressures, exchange-rate stability and earlier easing would contain inflation as lending and Serbia Expo 2027-related investment supported growth.
On 10 September 2026, the Executive Board again held the rate at 5.75%, citing actual and expected inflation and risks from the international environment. Year-on-year inflation remained within the 3±1.5% target band and stood at 1.9% in July, mainly because an exceptionally good harvest lowered fruit and vegetable prices, while significant second-round effects had not materialised and the economy proved more resilient than expected to the energy shock. The August projection envisaged inflation remaining within the target band over the next two years, moving around 4% from September 2026 and during 2027 before gradually declining, while core inflation stood at 4.5% in July.
Economic activity also exceeded expectations, with real gross domestic product growth accelerating to 3.8% year on year in the second quarter and prompting the National Bank of Serbia to raise its 2026 growth projection to 3.2%, while the Executive Board maintained a cautious stance as uncertainty over the Middle East conflict and oil prices remained elevated and reiterated that it would use all available instruments if stronger second-round effects lifted other prices through inflation expectations.