- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- key policy rate
- 15.5%
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) kept its key policy rate at 15.5 % per annum, judging that persistent inflationary risks—especially uncertainty over future international financing—require continued monetary tightness to preserve the appeal of hryvnia assets, maintain FX-market stability and steer inflation to the 5 % target. After raising the rate by a cumulative 100 bp in January and March 2025, the central bank has held it steady at 15.5 % since April. The unchanged stance has prevented a decline in hryvnia-instrument yields, bolstered household term deposits and government bond purchases, curbed FX demand and supported lending growth of more than 30 % y/y. Headline and core inflation eased to 9.3 % y/y in November—below the October Inflation Report path—yet inflation expectations remain elevated; the bank foresees a continued but slower disinflation as harvest-related food supply improves and tight policy contains underlying pressures. Ukraine has secured USD 45.8 bn in official financing so far this year and expects a further USD 5 bn by end-2025, underpinning reserve adequacy, though funding for 2026–27 is still being negotiated. The ongoing war, potential spikes in defence and reconstruction spending, energy-infrastructure damage and labour shortages remain key threats, set against possible upside from stronger partner support and progress toward peace. The NBU reiterates its readiness to withhold easing or tighten further if inflation risks intensify, while a sustained risk improvement would open the way for rate cuts under its October baseline.
Rate evolution
Over the period, the National Bank of Ukraine held its key policy rate at 15.5% through 2025, cut it by 50 basis points to 15% in January 2026, paused, and subsequently raised it in two 50-basis-point steps to 16%. Through most of 2025, it kept a tight stance to support FX market sustainability and keep inflation expectations in check as inflation, peaking in May and then slowing, remained above forecast at times and underlying pressures from wages, labor shortages, energy costs, demand and war-related disruption persisted. Late in 2025, the risk balance turned more hawkish, with greater emphasis on energy shortages, larger budgetary needs and uncertainty over external assistance, even as harvests and official financing supported disinflation and reserves.
After the January cut, the NBU held at 15% as inflation rose on energy and fuel prices linked to the war in the Middle East, hryvnia weakness and faster wage growth, before raising it to 15.5% as persistent pressures from logistics, wage and energy costs continued despite increased raw food supply. Most recently, it raised the key policy rate to 16% in view of persistent underlying price pressures, second-round effects from supply shocks and higher medium-term inflation risks, after consumer inflation accelerated to 8.1% year on year in August, primarily on a greater-than-expected rise in fuel prices amid escalation in the Middle East and faster increases in administered tariffs due largely to Russia’s attacks on critical infrastructure. The increase aims to support the attractiveness of hryvnia assets, maintain FX market sustainability, keep inflation expectations in check and return inflation toward the 5% target, while the NBU said it stood ready to tighten further if risks intensified or consider easing if the security situation noticeably weakened consumer demand and the labor market.