- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- Reference interest rate
- 5.75%
The Executive Board of the National Bank of Serbia left the reference rate at 5.75 %, and kept the deposit and lending facility rates at 4.5 % and 7.0 %, respectively, judging that headline inflation, which stabilised slightly below the 3 ± 1.5 % target midpoint in late-2025, will hover near that centre until March while margin caps remain in force and stay within target through end-2026 as lower import costs and a better farm season offset stronger household income. The rate has been unchanged at 5.75 % since September 2024 after cumulative cuts of 75 bp earlier that year. The corridor is therefore unchanged, with the central bank again emphasising exchange-rate stability and measured credit support for lower-income borrowers. Real GDP is estimated to have grown 2.0 % in 2025—services and industry outweighed declines in construction and agriculture—while goods exports rose about 8 %, and the Board expects faster expansion in 2026-27 on consumption and Expo-linked investment. It cautioned that persistent geopolitical tensions, rising protectionism and debt-sustainability concerns in advanced economies are dampening global demand and could hit Serbia’s oil-refining and metals output, even as Fed projections point to further US rate cuts and the ECB is seen holding rates to 2026. The Board will continue a meeting-by-meeting approach, balancing price and financial stability with growth.
Rate evolution
From June 2025 through September 2026, the National Bank of Serbia kept the key policy rate unchanged at 5.75%, extending a pause with no net change. The hold reflected actual and expected inflation and uncertainty, which eased in early autumn before worsening again, with mid-2025 decisions balancing weather- and drought-driven food inflation and an oil-price rise from Middle East tensions against softer domestic activity, while later decisions judged that the Government’s margin-capping decree, lower imported cost pressures, exchange-rate stability and earlier easing would contain inflation as lending and Serbia Expo 2027-related investment supported growth.
On 10 September 2026, the Executive Board again held the rate at 5.75%, citing actual and expected inflation and risks from the international environment. Year-on-year inflation remained within the 3±1.5% target band and stood at 1.9% in July, mainly because an exceptionally good harvest lowered fruit and vegetable prices, while significant second-round effects had not materialised and the economy proved more resilient than expected to the energy shock. The August projection envisaged inflation remaining within the target band over the next two years, moving around 4% from September 2026 and during 2027 before gradually declining, while core inflation stood at 4.5% in July.
Economic activity also exceeded expectations, with real gross domestic product growth accelerating to 3.8% year on year in the second quarter and prompting the National Bank of Serbia to raise its 2026 growth projection to 3.2%, while the Executive Board maintained a cautious stance as uncertainty over the Middle East conflict and oil prices remained elevated and reiterated that it would use all available instruments if stronger second-round effects lifted other prices through inflation expectations.