- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- Reference rate
- 4%
Poland’s Monetary Policy Council left all National Bank of Poland rates unchanged at its 13–14 January meeting, keeping the reference rate at 4.00%, the lombard rate at 4.50%, the deposit rate at 3.50%, the rediscount rate at 4.05% and the bill-discount rate at 4.10%, without providing any economic commentary. Having cut the reference rate by a cumulative 175 bp since January 2025—including five consecutive 25 bp reductions between July and December 2025—the Council made no alterations to the existing policy corridor or liquidity framework and offered no forward-looking guidance beyond confirming that the full press release would be published later on 14 January.
Rate evolution
The Monetary Policy Council of the National Bank of Poland left the reference rate unchanged at 3.75% on 8 July 2026, judging that June CPI inflation had eased to 2.5% year on year from 3.1% in May, mainly on slower fuel and food price growth. The Council also noted that energy commodity prices had fallen over the previous month, including a significant decline in oil prices, while growth in the immediate environment of the Polish economy remained subdued and inflation was still higher than at the beginning of the year. In domestic data, retail sales, industrial output, and construction and assembly production rose on an annual basis in May, while annual wage growth in the enterprise sector was lower than in the first quarter of 2026 and employment was still declining.
The July projection, based on unchanged interest rates, put annual price growth at 2.4% to 3.3% in 2026, 1.5% to 4.0% in 2027, and 0.8% to 3.9% in 2028, while GDP growth was seen at 3.0% to 4.4%, 1.8% to 3.7%, and 1.9% to 4.1%, respectively.
On 8-9 September, the Council again held the reference rate at 3.75% after CPI inflation rose to 3.4% year on year in August from 3.0% in July, mainly due to stronger annual growth in fuel prices, while inflation excluding food and energy prices was also estimated to have increased. Annual GDP growth accelerated to 3.9% in the second quarter from 3.5% in the first, amid faster investment growth and slower consumption growth, while the Council said further decisions would depend on incoming information on inflation and economic activity, including global commodity prices and inflation, the geopolitical context, fiscal policy, domestic activity growth, and wage developments.