- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- Base rate
- 2.5%
The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea kept the Base Rate at 2.50 % on 15 January 2026, judging that a steady policy stance best balances a gradually easing inflation outlook with an improving growth trend and still-elevated financial-stability risks. The rate has been unchanged since May 2025, when the Board completed a cumulative 50 bp easing cycle that had lowered the policy rate from 3.00 % in February to the current 2.50 %. Inflation slipped to 2.3 % y/y in December while core CPI held at 2.0 %, and both headline and core inflation are seen easing toward the 2 % range this year in line with November projections (2.1 % and 2.0 %). GDP growth, expected to match the November forecast of 1.8 % for 2026, is underpinned by firm consumption and robust semiconductor exports, though construction remains soft; upside risks have risen on faster chip-sector gains and stronger-than-expected global demand. The won briefly strengthened after FX-market stabilisation measures but has since returned to the mid-to-upper KRW 1,400 per USD amid dollar firmness, yen weakness and geopolitical tensions; Korean Treasury yields spiked before retracing, and equities have rallied on improved earnings prospects. The Board highlighted persistent vulnerabilities from high Seoul-area housing prices, household debt and exchange-rate volatility, and said it will continue to aim for medium-term price stability while adjusting policy as needed in response to domestic and external developments.
Rate evolution
Since late May 2025, the Bank of Korea lowered the Base Rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% and held it there through May 2026, moving from an initial easing step driven by a sharp growth downgrade, weak domestic demand and slower exports to an extended pause as inflation stayed around 2% and the Board continued to caution about household debt and foreign exchange volatility. As consumption and exports improved, helped by semiconductors and fiscal support, it for a time retained an easing bias but increasingly emphasised housing prices in Seoul and its surrounding areas, household debt, exchange-rate volatility and inflation running somewhat above earlier forecasts, shifting from a rate-cut stance to a data-dependent hold.
In the most recent decisions, stronger-than-expected growth and inflation near target kept policy unchanged in January and February 2026, and the April 2026 hold was framed around the Middle East war as a supply shock that could lift inflation while weakening growth. The Board again left the Base Rate at 2.50% in May 2026 even as it raised its 2026 growth forecast to 2.6% from 2.0% and its consumer price inflation and core inflation forecasts to 2.7% and 2.4% from 2.2% and 2.1%, respectively, citing increased inflationary pressure from the Middle East war, stronger exports, semiconductor-led investment, favourable consumption and financial stability risks, but judging that uncertainty around the conflict and its spillovers warranted staying on hold. On July 16, 2026, the Bank of Korea raised the Base Rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, judging that growth had strengthened further on exports and investment, inflation was likely to remain above target for a considerable time and financial stability risks persisted, noting that 2026 growth was likely to considerably exceed the May forecast of 2.6% and that June consumer price inflation rose to 3.2% while core inflation held at 2.5%, and signalling a stance consistent with further rate hikes. On August 27, 2026, it raised the Base Rate by another 25 basis points to 3.00%, citing stronger-than-expected growth supported by strong exports and a recovery in domestic demand, inflation expected to remain above target for a considerable time and continued financial stability risks, as it raised its growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to 3.3% and 2.9%, kept its consumer price inflation forecasts at 2.7% and 2.3%, and lifted its core inflation forecasts to 2.5% for both years while signalling that the timing and pace of further increases would depend on inflation, domestic economic trends and financial stability.