- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- Monetary policy rate
- 6.5%
The Board of the National Bank of Romania (NBR) on 19 January 2026 left the policy rate unchanged at 6.50% and kept the standing credit (Lombard) and deposit facility rates at 7.50% and 5.50%, respectively, alongside unchanged reserve-requirement ratios, judging that a steady stance is warranted as headline inflation eased only marginally to 9.69% in December from 9.88% in September while core inflation (CORE2 adjusted) climbed further to 8.5%, supported by wage costs, high short-term inflation expectations, higher agro-commodity quotes, a weaker leu versus the euro and indirect energy effects. The key rate has been held at 6.50% since January 2025. Interbank rates continued to drift lower in November-December and government bond yields fell to 13-14-month lows, though the leu firmed against the USD but edged weaker versus the euro amid shifting Fed expectations and domestic fiscal debates. Real GDP contracted 0.2% q/q in Q3 2025 but grew 1.7% y/y as investment rebounded; preliminary data point to Q4 stagnation. Private-sector credit growth slowed to 6.8% y/y in November, with the lei share dipping to 68.7%. The trade gap narrowed further and the current-account deficit remained on a downward trend despite some recent widening. The Bank flagged elevated external risks from escalating geopolitical conflicts and global trade tensions and noted potential disinflationary effects from ongoing fiscal consolidation, while reiterating its readiness to adjust instruments as needed to secure medium-term price stability.
Rate evolution
From July 2025 to August 2026, the National Bank of Romania kept the monetary policy rate unchanged at 6.50%, extending an uninterrupted hold. Initially, it cited rising inflation, including higher adjusted CORE2 inflation from food and energy prices, wage-cost pass-through, short-term inflation expectations and leu/euro weakness, while warning that the removal of the electricity price cap and rises in VAT rates and excise duties would cause a temporary jump. It nonetheless viewed fiscal correction as disinflationary over the medium term by weakening demand and narrowing external imbalances, even as activity softened and inflation neared 10% in late 2025.
On 8 July 2026, the bank again held the rate at 6.50% as 12-month inflation rose to 10.85% in May from 9.87% in March and adjusted CORE2 inflation increased to 8.5% from 8.2%, driven by higher natural gas, fuel and administered prices, base effects, the rise in oil prices, a notable increase in rents for state-owned housing, and the indirect effects of costlier fuels, the increase in the EUR/RON exchange rate and some import prices amid high short-term inflation expectations. Uncertainty remained very high because of the domestic political situation, potential future budget-consolidation measures, the Middle East conflict and the global energy shock, even as the bank noted that economic activity stalled in 2026 Q1 after contracting in 2025 Q4, saw a slight recovery in 2026 Q2, and continued to expect inflation to decline substantially in 2026 Q3 as the direct effects of the removal of the electricity price cap and the increases in VAT rates and excise duties faded, with underlying disinflationary pressures from aggregate demand strengthening amid budget correction.
On 10 August 2026, the National Bank of Romania maintained the rate at 6.50% as inflation declined to 10.42% in June, largely due to lower volatile food and fuel prices, while adjusted CORE2 inflation stood at 8.3%, and reaffirmed that inflation would correct substantially in 2026 Q3 before gradually declining and re-entering the target variation band at end-2027 amid a widening aggregate demand deficit, while flagging risks from electricity, food and oil prices, the severe drought, fiscal policy, the Middle East conflict and the energy crisis.