- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- Base rate
- 18%
The Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) kept the base rate unchanged at 18.0 % with a ±1 ppt corridor, citing December’s uptick in monthly inflation to 0.9 %, still-elevated core price growth (0.8 %) and persistent pro-inflationary risks from demand running ahead of supply, looming hikes in utilities and fuel prices, and uncertainty around tax and quasi-fiscal measures, even as 2025 year-end inflation of 12.3 % matched the NBK’s forecast. After a cumulative 275 bp tightening in 2025—from 15.25 % in January to 18 % in October—the rate has been on hold. The Committee reiterated a “cautious” stance and signalled a high likelihood that the current setting will be maintained at least through the first half of 2026. Liquidity is being absorbed via tighter money-market tools, including higher ETRT and mirrored gold purchase operations. Food inflation remained the main driver at 13.5 %, while non-food inflation eased to 11.1 % on a stronger tenge and regulated utility tariffs slowed service-price gains to 12.0 %; unsecured consumer lending growth decelerated to 7.3 % in the first 11 months of 2025. GDP expanded by 6.5 % in 2025, supported by transport, construction, trade and both mining and manufacturing. Externally, global food prices stay high despite recent declines, grain and sugar costs are still rising, and heightened geopolitical tensions add uncertainty, while inflation is easing in Russia and the EU but risks persist amid shifting US trade policy. The NBK will continue to monitor price dynamics and the effectiveness of joint stabilisation measures, with the next rate decision due on 6 March 2026.
Rate evolution
Over the period, the National Bank of Kazakhstan raised the base rate by 150 basis points from 16.5% to 18.0%, holding through mid-2025 before tightening in October 2025 and then leaving policy unchanged into April 2026. The early holds reflected persistent inflation and a risk balance that turned increasingly pro-inflationary, as tariff reforms, fuel liberalisation, strong consumer demand, retail lending and fiscal stimulus kept demand above supply, while volatile expectations and external pressures from global food prices, Russia, trade frictions and geopolitical tensions added to price growth. After inflation exceeded forecast and monetary conditions were judged to have loosened, the Bank raised the rate.
More recently, inflation slowed under moderately tight conditions, anti-inflation measures, the stronger tenge and a moratorium on utility and fuel price increases, and by June 2026 the Bank judged that moderate domestic demand and favourable external conditions partly offset accumulated pressures. With annual inflation easing to 10.4% in May from a 12.9% peak in September 2025 and the 2026 forecast revised down to 9.0% to 11.0%, the National Bank of Kazakhstan cut the base rate by 100 basis points to 17.0% on 5 June and by a further 25 basis points to 16.75% on 24 July as inflation edged down to 10.3% in June, while warning that underlying price pressures required confirmation. On 4 September, it lowered the rate by 50 basis points to 16.25% as annual inflation slowed for an eleventh month to 9.8% in August and one-year inflation expectations fell to 12.1% in July, but said scope for further cuts was limited after raising its 2027 inflation forecast to 6.5% to 8.5% and assessing that risks had shifted in a pro-inflationary direction amid stronger fiscal stimulus, unstable expectations, fuel and utility prices, and global food and energy costs.