- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- Policy rate
- 14%
The Board of the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan kept the policy rate at 14 % per annum following its 28 January 2026 meeting, judging that a still-tight stance is needed to lock in the “stable downward path” of inflation amid lingering risks from elevated services prices, certain food items and a recent uptick in inflation expectations. The rate has been steady since a 50 bp increase in March 2025. Liquidity-absorption operations were intensified to hold money-market rates near the policy rate at 13.5–13.8 %, preserving positive real returns. Annual headline inflation fell to 7.3 % in December, with core inflation at 5.7 %, and is now forecast at about 6.5 % by end-2026, while GDP growth this year is projected at 6.5–7 % on robust investment, fiscal spending and strong retail lending. A 6.9 % appreciation of the soum in 2025, supported by export revenues, external borrowing and remittances, eased imported inflation and reduced dollarisation, and external conditions are expected to remain “relatively favourable”. The statement notes moderating inflation abroad and solid global growth alongside high precious-metals prices that bolster export and fiscal receipts. The Board signalled that rate cuts could be considered if price pressures and expectations keep easing, but stressed it will retain tight monetary conditions until inflation is firmly on course toward the 5 % medium-term target.
Rate evolution
From June 2025 to September 2026, the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan kept the policy rate at 14%, maintaining a tight stance as inflation slowed only gradually, core and services inflation remained elevated, expectations exceeded actual inflation, and robust demand drew support from credit growth, fiscal spending, remittances, investment and high activity.
By late 2025 and January 2026, it judged disinflation to be broadening as exchange-rate appreciation, lower import-price pressure and tighter monetary conditions pushed core inflation down and led to lower inflation forecasts, but services inflation, retail lending and resilient consumer demand still warranted tight policy, even as it said rate cuts could be considered if inflation and expectations kept falling. In March and April 2026, the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan said price stabilization had slowed, food-price inflation and producer prices were adding pressure, expectations remained above forecast, growth and aggregate demand had strengthened further, and geopolitical tensions were increasing oil, food, supply-chain and logistics risks, so it kept the policy rate at 14% and said conditions could be tightened further if inflation or expectations threatened progress towards the 5% target. At its 17 June meeting, it again held the rate at 14%, noting that headline inflation had fallen to 5.5% in May as energy-tariff base effects faded, but core inflation was broadly unchanged at 5.7%, domestic demand remained strong, and fiscal spending, the June energy-tariff increase and external food, energy and logistics costs posed further risks. On 29 July, it maintained the rate at 14% as headline inflation accelerated to 6.4% in June following higher regulated energy tariffs and coal price liberalization, core inflation remained at 5.7%, demand continued to grow rapidly, and tariff effects, fiscal spending and external price and supply risks warranted tight conditions despite lower household and business inflation expectations.
On 16 September, it again held the policy rate at 14%, noting that headline inflation had slowed to 6.2% in August and core inflation was around 5.5%, but a growing share of goods and services recorded price increases above 5% and inflation expectations were declining more slowly than headline inflation. Active consumption and investment demand, high global commodity, food and energy prices, transport and logistics costs, and potential second-round effects from regulated-price liberalization warranted continued tight conditions, despite signs of stabilization in some demand components, moderating credit growth and real effective exchange-rate appreciation that eased import-price pressure.