- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- Reference rate
- 4%
The Monetary Policy Council of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) left the reference rate unchanged at 4.00 % – with the lombard, deposit, rediscount and discount rates held at 4.50 %, 3.50 %, 4.05 % and 4.10 %, respectively – citing a further easing of headline and core inflation alongside steady, near-trend growth at home and abroad. After delivering a cumulative 175 bp of rate cuts between May and December 2025, the Council now judges the current setting compatible with its inflation target. December CPI slowed to 2.4 % y/y and core inflation to 2.7 % y/y, while 2025 GDP growth came in at 3.6 %, with labour-market data showing moderating wage gains and falling enterprise-sector employment. Externally, euro-area inflation is at the European Central Bank’s goal, U.S. inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s target, and global commodity prices are below year-earlier levels. The Council reiterated its readiness to intervene in the foreign-exchange market and said subsequent decisions will hinge on data for inflation, activity, fiscal stance, wage dynamics and global price developments to ensure price stability over the medium term.
Rate evolution
The Monetary Policy Council of the National Bank of Poland left the reference rate unchanged at 3.75% on 8 July 2026, judging that June CPI inflation had eased to 2.5% year on year from 3.1% in May, mainly on slower fuel and food price growth. The Council also noted that energy commodity prices had fallen over the previous month, including a significant decline in oil prices, while growth in the immediate environment of the Polish economy remained subdued and inflation was still higher than at the beginning of the year. In domestic data, retail sales, industrial output, and construction and assembly production rose on an annual basis in May, while annual wage growth in the enterprise sector was lower than in the first quarter of 2026 and employment was still declining.
The July projection, based on unchanged interest rates, put annual price growth at 2.4% to 3.3% in 2026, 1.5% to 4.0% in 2027, and 0.8% to 3.9% in 2028, while GDP growth was seen at 3.0% to 4.4%, 1.8% to 3.7%, and 1.9% to 4.1%, respectively.
On 8-9 September, the Council again held the reference rate at 3.75% after CPI inflation rose to 3.4% year on year in August from 3.0% in July, mainly due to stronger annual growth in fuel prices, while inflation excluding food and energy prices was also estimated to have increased. Annual GDP growth accelerated to 3.9% in the second quarter from 3.5% in the first, amid faster investment growth and slower consumption growth, while the Council said further decisions would depend on incoming information on inflation and economic activity, including global commodity prices and inflation, the geopolitical context, fiscal policy, domestic activity growth, and wage developments.