- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- base rate
- 5%
The Executive Board of the National Bank of Moldova (NBM) unanimously kept the base rate on main short-term operations at 5.00% per annum on 5 February 2026, judging that earlier easing is still filtering through and that inflation is set to return to, and stay within, the 5% ± 1.5 pp target band from the first quarter. After a cumulative 150 bp reduction from 6.50% in June to 5.00% in December 2025, the policy corridor remains at 3.00%-7.00% with the repo rate at 5.25%, while the NBM further loosened financial conditions by cutting required-reserve ratios to 18% on MDL/non-convertible deposits and 26% on convertible-currency deposits effective 16 February–15 March to bolster banking-system liquidity and credit supply. Annual CPI eased to 6.84% in December 2025, down 0.15 pp on the month but still just above the ceiling; the new forecast sees average inflation at 5.0% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027. Output rebounded, with GDP up 5.2% y/y in Q3 2025 and January–September activity 2.0% above the 2024 level, supported by strong household and corporate demand and double-digit gains in exports, imports and industrial production in October-November. Weighted average loan rates fell to 9.12% in Q4 while deposit rates edged up to 5.08%, amid excess liquidity of MDL 6.2 bn. Externally, Brent oil prices were stable, the US dollar weakened and European gas prices spiked in January on cold weather and lower reserves, while international food prices stayed flat. The central bank cites domestic tariff, agricultural and demographic uncertainties, as well as geopolitical and commodity-price risks, but expects inflation to remain near target through 2027; the next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 19 March 2026.
Rate evolution
The National Bank of Moldova moved from a June 2025 hold into a 150 basis point easing cycle through December, paused at 5.00% in early 2026, and then reversed course with increases of 150 basis points in May, 50 basis points on 18 June, 50 basis points on 6 August and 150 basis points on 17 September 2026, taking the base rate applied to the main short-term monetary policy operations to 9.00%. The earlier cuts reflected moderating inflation, transmission of previous restrictive measures and disinflationary aggregate demand, while reserve-ratio reductions sought to lower credit costs and support demand.
Statements initially described risks as broadly balanced with a disinflationary bias, but by May 2026 the balance had turned inflationary as the Middle East conflict raised energy, food and raw-material prices. The June increase responded to intensifying supply pressures, stronger domestic demand and inflation above the target range, while the August move addressed consumer demand and persistent supply shocks. On 17 September, the Bank maintained a restrictive stance as adverse international energy, food and raw-material prices intensified supply pressures and household disposable income supported domestic demand. Annual inflation rose to 6.96% in August, above the upper bound of the range around the 5.0% medium-term target, while the Bank revised its inflation projection down for the third quarter of 2026 and up for the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first half of 2027 relative to its August forecast.