- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- reference rate
- 4.25%
The Board of Directors of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) on 12 February 2026 left the policy reference rate unchanged at 4.25 percent, judging that year-on-year headline inflation, which inched up to 1.7 percent in January alongside a 2.0 percent core rate, is set to hover near the 2 percent midpoint of the 1–3 percent target range while economic activity remains close to potential and sentiment indicators stay broadly optimistic. After trimming the rate by a cumulative 50 bp in May and September 2025 to 4.25 percent, the BCRP has held it steady since. The overnight deposit rate was maintained at 2.25 percent and direct security/currency repo and rediscount operations remain at 4.75 percent for the first ten operations in the past three months, with higher rates possible for additional drawings as set by the Monetary and Exchange Operations Committee. One-year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 2.0 percent in January, and leading indicators for January point to solid output performance. The Board also cited stronger-than-expected global growth and exceptionally favourable terms of trade for Peru. It pledged continued vigilance and readiness to adjust the stance to ensure inflation stays within the target range.
Rate evolution
Over the period, the Central Reserve Bank of Peru held the reference rate at 4.50% in July 2025, lowered it by 25 basis points to 4.25% in September 2025 after several months on hold, and kept it unchanged through September 2026. The early pause reflected headline inflation and inflation without food and energy of 1.7% in June 2025, one-year-ahead inflation expectations of 2.3% within the target range, and activity around potential, while the September cut followed a temporary fall in headline inflation and the Board’s assessment that the rate was close to neutral.
At its June 11, 2026 meeting, the Board held the reference rate at 4.25%, noting that annual headline inflation eased to 3.9% in May, and on July 9 it again left the rate unchanged as headline inflation rose to 4.0% in June and inflation without food and energy to 4.5%, while expectations fell to 2.8% and activity indicators continued to perform well. In August, the Board maintained the rate as annual headline inflation increased to 4.1% in July, inflation without food and energy reached 4.6%, and 12-month inflation expectations rose to 3.0%, the upper limit of the target range. On September 10, it again held the rate at 4.25% as annual headline inflation rose to 4.4% in August, mainly because of a base effect, while inflation without food and energy declined to 4.5% and 12-month expectations increased to 3.1%, slightly above the target range. The Board projected both inflation measures would return to the target range and settle around 2% as supply-shock effects dissipated, but flagged risks from a more persistent El Niño and Middle East tensions and said it remained attentive to inflation, expectations, activity and the duration of supply shocks.