- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- Reference interest rate
- 5.75%
The Executive Board of the National Bank of Serbia on 12 February 2026 left the key policy rate at 5.75 percent, with deposit and lending facility rates held at 4.5 percent and 7.0 percent respectively, judging that headline inflation at 2.7 percent in December and its outlook remain safely inside the 3 ± 1.5 percent band while economic growth is expected to recover from 2025’s 2.0 percent pace. The rate has been unchanged at 5.75 percent since September 2024 following a cumulative 75 bp cut earlier that year. Operational parameters of the corridor were left intact and the Board reiterated its commitment to calibrated lending-support measures that avoid excessive credit expansion. Inflation is projected to stay within target through end-2026, aided by restrained domestic demand pressures, forthcoming legislation against unfair trading practices, easing international cost shocks and an anticipated better agricultural season, while wage gains are seen broadly matched by productivity. Externally, sanctions-related limits on the Oil Industry of Serbia and rising protectionism pose risks to exports, and the Board noted recent volatility in energy, primary commodity, precious-metal and currency markets. It cited ongoing geopolitical tensions alongside diverging major-central-bank stances—possible further Fed easing versus a likely ECB pause—as key global uncertainties. The Board affirmed it will maintain a cautious stance and decide policy “meeting-to-meeting” based on incoming data, preserving financial stability and supporting growth.
Rate evolution
From June 2025 through September 2026, the National Bank of Serbia kept the key policy rate unchanged at 5.75%, extending a pause with no net change. The hold reflected actual and expected inflation and uncertainty, which eased in early autumn before worsening again, with mid-2025 decisions balancing weather- and drought-driven food inflation and an oil-price rise from Middle East tensions against softer domestic activity, while later decisions judged that the Government’s margin-capping decree, lower imported cost pressures, exchange-rate stability and earlier easing would contain inflation as lending and Serbia Expo 2027-related investment supported growth.
On 10 September 2026, the Executive Board again held the rate at 5.75%, citing actual and expected inflation and risks from the international environment. Year-on-year inflation remained within the 3±1.5% target band and stood at 1.9% in July, mainly because an exceptionally good harvest lowered fruit and vegetable prices, while significant second-round effects had not materialised and the economy proved more resilient than expected to the energy shock. The August projection envisaged inflation remaining within the target band over the next two years, moving around 4% from September 2026 and during 2027 before gradually declining, while core inflation stood at 4.5% in July.
Economic activity also exceeded expectations, with real gross domestic product growth accelerating to 3.8% year on year in the second quarter and prompting the National Bank of Serbia to raise its 2026 growth projection to 3.2%, while the Executive Board maintained a cautious stance as uncertainty over the Middle East conflict and oil prices remained elevated and reiterated that it would use all available instruments if stronger second-round effects lifted other prices through inflation expectations.