- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- monetary policy rate
- 6.5%
The Board of the National Bank of Romania kept the policy rate unchanged at 6.50% on 17 February 2026, arguing that the current stance is appropriate as headline CPI inched down to 9.62% in January from 9.69% in December while GDP fell 1.9% q/q in Q4 and full-year 2025 growth slowed to 0.6%, signalling weak demand alongside still-elevated inflation. The benchmark has been steady at 6.50% since January 2025. The overnight lending and deposit facility rates stay at 7.50% and 5.50% respectively, reserve-requirement ratios are unchanged, and interbank rates and sovereign yields have continued to retreat to multi-month lows. Core inflation (CORE2 adjusted) held at 8.5% in January; private‐sector credit growth eased to 6.2% y/y in December, and labour-market indicators point to softer hiring intentions, though unit labour-cost growth picked up late last year. Externally, a sharper fall in imports than exports helped compress the trade gap in Q4, while the leu briefly firmed against the EUR in early January before retracing and later gained versus the USD as the dollar weakened globally. The central bank projects a slow disinflation in Q1, a Q2 uptick on base effects and policy-driven price rises, followed by an abrupt drop in Q3 as prior energy-price and tax shocks fade, with inflation expected to move inside the target band from mid-2027 amid stronger demand-side disinflation. High uncertainty stems from future fiscal-consolidation measures, ongoing geopolitical and trade tensions, and the policy stance of the ECB, the Federal Reserve and regional peers; the Board reiterated its readiness to act to safeguard medium-term price and financial stability.
Rate evolution
From July 2025 to August 2026, the National Bank of Romania kept the monetary policy rate unchanged at 6.50%, extending an uninterrupted hold. Initially, it cited rising inflation, including higher adjusted CORE2 inflation from food and energy prices, wage-cost pass-through, short-term inflation expectations and leu/euro weakness, while warning that the removal of the electricity price cap and rises in VAT rates and excise duties would cause a temporary jump. It nonetheless viewed fiscal correction as disinflationary over the medium term by weakening demand and narrowing external imbalances, even as activity softened and inflation neared 10% in late 2025.
On 8 July 2026, the bank again held the rate at 6.50% as 12-month inflation rose to 10.85% in May from 9.87% in March and adjusted CORE2 inflation increased to 8.5% from 8.2%, driven by higher natural gas, fuel and administered prices, base effects, the rise in oil prices, a notable increase in rents for state-owned housing, and the indirect effects of costlier fuels, the increase in the EUR/RON exchange rate and some import prices amid high short-term inflation expectations. Uncertainty remained very high because of the domestic political situation, potential future budget-consolidation measures, the Middle East conflict and the global energy shock, even as the bank noted that economic activity stalled in 2026 Q1 after contracting in 2025 Q4, saw a slight recovery in 2026 Q2, and continued to expect inflation to decline substantially in 2026 Q3 as the direct effects of the removal of the electricity price cap and the increases in VAT rates and excise duties faded, with underlying disinflationary pressures from aggregate demand strengthening amid budget correction.
On 10 August 2026, the National Bank of Romania maintained the rate at 6.50% as inflation declined to 10.42% in June, largely due to lower volatile food and fuel prices, while adjusted CORE2 inflation stood at 8.3%, and reaffirmed that inflation would correct substantially in 2026 Q3 before gradually declining and re-entering the target variation band at end-2027 amid a widening aggregate demand deficit, while flagging risks from electricity, food and oil prices, the severe drought, fiscal policy, the Middle East conflict and the energy crisis.