- Decision
- Lower
- Rate change
- 25 bps
- Reference rate
- 3.75%
Poland’s Monetary Policy Council cut the Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP) reference rate by 25 bp to 3.75 % at its 3–4 March meeting, citing continued disinflation and projections that consumer price growth will stay within the 1.5–3.5 % target band over the forecast horizon even as activity holds up. The move extends a year-long easing cycle that has lowered the policy rate by a cumulative 200 bp since May 2025. The lombard, deposit, rediscount and discount rates were adjusted to 4.25 %, 3.25 %, 3.80 % and 3.85 %, respectively. Headline CPI slipped to 2.2 % y/y in January from 2.4 % in December, while the March NECMOD projection assigns a 50 % probability to inflation of 1.6–2.9 % in 2026 and GDP growth of 3.1–4.7 %. Q4 2025 GDP expanded 4.0 % y/y, supported by domestic demand, though January data show falling industrial and construction output and softer wage growth alongside declining enterprise employment. Rising global energy prices and geopolitical risks cloud the external outlook; the Council noted euro-area inflation near the ECB’s goal but persistently above-target U.S. inflation. Policymakers reiterated that future rate moves will hinge on incoming data on inflation, activity, fiscal stance, wages and global commodity prices, and affirmed readiness to act to safeguard macro-financial stability, including via FX interventions.
Rate evolution
The Monetary Policy Council of the National Bank of Poland left the reference rate unchanged at 3.75% on 8 July 2026, judging that June CPI inflation had eased to 2.5% year on year from 3.1% in May, mainly on slower fuel and food price growth. The Council also noted that energy commodity prices had fallen over the previous month, including a significant decline in oil prices, while growth in the immediate environment of the Polish economy remained subdued and inflation was still higher than at the beginning of the year. In domestic data, retail sales, industrial output, and construction and assembly production rose on an annual basis in May, while annual wage growth in the enterprise sector was lower than in the first quarter of 2026 and employment was still declining.
The July projection, based on unchanged interest rates, put annual price growth at 2.4% to 3.3% in 2026, 1.5% to 4.0% in 2027, and 0.8% to 3.9% in 2028, while GDP growth was seen at 3.0% to 4.4%, 1.8% to 3.7%, and 1.9% to 4.1%, respectively.
On 8-9 September, the Council again held the reference rate at 3.75% after CPI inflation rose to 3.4% year on year in August from 3.0% in July, mainly due to stronger annual growth in fuel prices, while inflation excluding food and energy prices was also estimated to have increased. Annual GDP growth accelerated to 3.9% in the second quarter from 3.5% in the first, amid faster investment growth and slower consumption growth, while the Council said further decisions would depend on incoming information on inflation and economic activity, including global commodity prices and inflation, the geopolitical context, fiscal policy, domestic activity growth, and wage developments.