- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- Reference interest rate
- 5.75%
The Executive Board of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) left the key policy rate unchanged at 5.75 percent on 12 March 2026, together with deposit and lending facility rates of 4.5 percent and 7.0 percent, citing the continued decline in year-on-year inflation to 2.4 percent in January and projections that price growth will remain within the 3 ± 1.5 percent target band through end-2026. The benchmark has been steady at 5.75 percent since September 2024 following three 25 bp cuts earlier that year. The unchanged corridor preserves tight monetary conditions, while targeted lending measures for lower-income households aim to support credit without fuelling excess demand. Falling food prices—helped by a government margin cap—have tempered inflationary pressure, although January industrial output dipped due to disruptions at the Pančevo refinery; the NBS still foresees growth strengthening later this year on rising consumption and investment linked to the “Leap into the Future – Serbia Expo 2027” programme. The Board warned that Middle East hostilities, higher crude prices and persistent global protectionism could lift domestic fuel costs and unsettle trade and capital flows. It will maintain a cautious, meeting-by-meeting stance focused on safeguarding financial stability and the growth outlook, with the next rate review set for 9 April.
Rate evolution
From June 2025 through September 2026, the National Bank of Serbia kept the key policy rate unchanged at 5.75%, extending a pause with no net change. The hold reflected actual and expected inflation and uncertainty, which eased in early autumn before worsening again, with mid-2025 decisions balancing weather- and drought-driven food inflation and an oil-price rise from Middle East tensions against softer domestic activity, while later decisions judged that the Government’s margin-capping decree, lower imported cost pressures, exchange-rate stability and earlier easing would contain inflation as lending and Serbia Expo 2027-related investment supported growth.
On 10 September 2026, the Executive Board again held the rate at 5.75%, citing actual and expected inflation and risks from the international environment. Year-on-year inflation remained within the 3±1.5% target band and stood at 1.9% in July, mainly because an exceptionally good harvest lowered fruit and vegetable prices, while significant second-round effects had not materialised and the economy proved more resilient than expected to the energy shock. The August projection envisaged inflation remaining within the target band over the next two years, moving around 4% from September 2026 and during 2027 before gradually declining, while core inflation stood at 4.5% in July.
Economic activity also exceeded expectations, with real gross domestic product growth accelerating to 3.8% year on year in the second quarter and prompting the National Bank of Serbia to raise its 2026 growth projection to 3.2%, while the Executive Board maintained a cautious stance as uncertainty over the Middle East conflict and oil prices remained elevated and reiterated that it would use all available instruments if stronger second-round effects lifted other prices through inflation expectations.