- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- policy rate
- 14%
The Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan kept its policy rate unchanged at 14 % on 18 March 2026, arguing that sticky headline inflation at 7.3 % in February, a renewed uptick in core inflation to 6.3 %, robust consumer demand and heightened external price risks require the continuation of tight monetary conditions to steer inflation to the 5 % medium-term target. The rate has stood at 14 % since a 50 bp hike in March 2025. The Bank notes that lending growth is gradually normalising and expects existing macro-prudential measures and the current stance to help temper aggregate demand. Externally, strong export receipts, remittances, elevated gold prices and relatively stable partner-currency dynamics are limiting pressure on the soum’s real exchange rate. Nevertheless, the Board warns that geopolitical tensions and possible supply-chain disruptions could lift global energy and food costs, feeding into domestic prices. It pledges to “closely monitor” inflation, expectations, demand and external conditions and stands ready to tighten further should risks threaten progress toward the target.
Rate evolution
From June 2025 to September 2026, the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan kept the policy rate at 14%, maintaining a tight stance as inflation slowed only gradually, core and services inflation remained elevated, expectations exceeded actual inflation, and robust demand drew support from credit growth, fiscal spending, remittances, investment and high activity.
By late 2025 and January 2026, it judged disinflation to be broadening as exchange-rate appreciation, lower import-price pressure and tighter monetary conditions pushed core inflation down and led to lower inflation forecasts, but services inflation, retail lending and resilient consumer demand still warranted tight policy, even as it said rate cuts could be considered if inflation and expectations kept falling. In March and April 2026, the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan said price stabilization had slowed, food-price inflation and producer prices were adding pressure, expectations remained above forecast, growth and aggregate demand had strengthened further, and geopolitical tensions were increasing oil, food, supply-chain and logistics risks, so it kept the policy rate at 14% and said conditions could be tightened further if inflation or expectations threatened progress towards the 5% target. At its 17 June meeting, it again held the rate at 14%, noting that headline inflation had fallen to 5.5% in May as energy-tariff base effects faded, but core inflation was broadly unchanged at 5.7%, domestic demand remained strong, and fiscal spending, the June energy-tariff increase and external food, energy and logistics costs posed further risks. On 29 July, it maintained the rate at 14% as headline inflation accelerated to 6.4% in June following higher regulated energy tariffs and coal price liberalization, core inflation remained at 5.7%, demand continued to grow rapidly, and tariff effects, fiscal spending and external price and supply risks warranted tight conditions despite lower household and business inflation expectations.
On 16 September, it again held the policy rate at 14%, noting that headline inflation had slowed to 6.2% in August and core inflation was around 5.5%, but a growing share of goods and services recorded price increases above 5% and inflation expectations were declining more slowly than headline inflation. Active consumption and investment demand, high global commodity, food and energy prices, transport and logistics costs, and potential second-round effects from regulated-price liberalization warranted continued tight conditions, despite signs of stabilization in some demand components, moderating credit growth and real effective exchange-rate appreciation that eased import-price pressure.