- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- base rate
- 5%
The Executive Board of the National Bank of Moldova (NBM) kept the base rate on main short-term operations unchanged at 5.00 % per annum on 19 March 2026, arguing that annual inflation of 5.06 % in February sits inside the ±1.5 pp band around the 5 % target while heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are lifting global energy prices and pose upside risks to the outlook. After cutting the base rate by 100 bp in December 2025, the NBM has left it steady at 5 % through the February and March 2026 meetings. Overnight lending and deposit rates were maintained at 7.00 % and 3.00 % respectively, the repo rate at 5.25 %, and required-reserve ratios at 18 % for MDL liabilities and 26 % for foreign-currency liabilities. Domestically, GDP grew 3.6 % y/y in Q4 2025 and 2.4 % for 2025 as a whole, while lower market interest rates in February helped push new MDL lending up by 27.4 % month-on-month. Externally, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has driven up oil and European gas prices, and the Bank warns that prolonged supply disruptions would raise imported inflation and weigh on activity. The NBM reiterates that, should international prices for energy, food or raw materials remain elevated, it stands ready to tighten policy to counter second-round effects and preserve price stability.
Rate evolution
The National Bank of Moldova moved from a June 2025 hold into a 150 basis point easing cycle through December, paused at 5.00% in early 2026, and then reversed course with increases of 150 basis points in May, 50 basis points on 18 June, 50 basis points on 6 August and 150 basis points on 17 September 2026, taking the base rate applied to the main short-term monetary policy operations to 9.00%. The earlier cuts reflected moderating inflation, transmission of previous restrictive measures and disinflationary aggregate demand, while reserve-ratio reductions sought to lower credit costs and support demand.
Statements initially described risks as broadly balanced with a disinflationary bias, but by May 2026 the balance had turned inflationary as the Middle East conflict raised energy, food and raw-material prices. The June increase responded to intensifying supply pressures, stronger domestic demand and inflation above the target range, while the August move addressed consumer demand and persistent supply shocks. On 17 September, the Bank maintained a restrictive stance as adverse international energy, food and raw-material prices intensified supply pressures and household disposable income supported domestic demand. Annual inflation rose to 6.96% in August, above the upper bound of the range around the 5.0% medium-term target, while the Bank revised its inflation projection down for the third quarter of 2026 and up for the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first half of 2027 relative to its August forecast.