- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- policy rate
- 1.75%
Sveriges Riksbank kept its policy rate at 1.75 % and reiterated that the rate is likely to stay at this level “for some time”, judging the current stance to balance support for activity with a path that should return underlying inflation to the 2 % target around the turn of the year despite the highly uncertain impact of the Middle-East war. After a 25 bp cut to 1.75 % in September 2025 the Executive Board has held the rate unchanged at each subsequent meeting. Underlying inflation has surprised on the downside, yet higher energy costs are seen lifting near-term CPIF; the central bank projects CPIF at 1.5 % in 2026 and 2.7 % in 2028, while GDP growth is forecast at 2.5 % in 2026 with unemployment edging down to 8.4 %. Externally, the conflict has triggered large swings in energy markets, pushed short-term global rates higher and strengthened the USD against the krona, adding to forecast uncertainty. The Riksbank will adjust policy if the evolving inflation or growth outlook warrants.
Rate evolution
From June 2025 to September 2026, the Riksbank lowered the policy rate from 2 per cent to 1.75 per cent, cutting in June and September 2025 and then holding it unchanged. The June cut reflected a recovery that had lost momentum, a softer inflation outlook, weak growth and high unemployment, while an August pause treated above-target inflation as temporary despite weak activity, and the September cut followed signs of easing inflation pressures even as the recovery and labour-market improvement remained delayed.
During subsequent holds through June 2026, the Riksbank said inflation had moved close to target and then below forecast while activity improved only tentatively, but uncertainty widened from trade policy and domestic demand to the war in the Middle East, energy and commodity prices, the krona and fiscal policy. On 17 June, it judged that underlying inflation was low and activity somewhat weaker than normal, but raised its policy-rate forecast somewhat and flagged a greater probability of an increase later in 2026 as war-related supply disruptions lifted inflationary pressures.
On 20 August, the Riksbank held the policy rate at 1.75 per cent, noting that growth and inflation had exceeded its June forecast but that subdued company pricing plans, fewer global supply-chain disruptions and weaker-than-expected labour-market developments left the overall outlook largely unchanged. On 24 September, it again held the rate at 1.75 per cent, but said stronger, broad-based activity and continued supply shocks meant the policy rate should rise more than projected in June, with increases expected to begin in 2026 if the outlook remained unchanged, as inflation pressures remained above normal despite measures of underlying inflation being relatively close to 2 per cent.