- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- repo rate
- 3.5%
The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago on 27 March 2026 kept the repo rate unchanged at 3.50 percent, judging that significant global uncertainty from the escalating United States-Israel-Iran conflict, subdued non-energy activity, slowing private-sector credit and still-muted inflation outweighed recent surges in international energy prices. The policy rate has been steady at 3.50 percent since at least March 2025. System liquidity remains ample—commercial banks’ excess reserves averaged TTD5.7 billion in mid-March after dipping to TTD3.8 billion in January—and no interbank repo trades have occurred since February, although the negative TT-US three-month treasury yield gap widened to 73 bp by 23 March. Headline consumer inflation eased to 0.6 percent year-on-year in February, with core inflation at 0.8 percent and food prices slightly lower, while private-sector credit growth decelerated to 5.4 percent in January from 6.3 percent in October 2025 amid weaker business and consumer lending. Foreign reserves have held around USD5.4 billion since December 2025, though some adequacy ratios have slipped. The Committee highlighted war-driven spikes in oil and gas prices, heightened financial-market volatility and cautious stances by major central banks as key external risks, and signalled continued close monitoring of global developments and readiness to adjust policy to balance reserve protection with supportive funding conditions.
Rate evolution
From June 2025 to June 2026, the Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago kept the repo rate unchanged at 3.50%, maintaining a prolonged pause as inflation stayed low and domestic growth softened while external uncertainty rose. Early decisions emphasised contained headline and core inflation, favourable financial conditions and initially strong but moderating credit growth, alongside slowing non-energy activity, with the Monetary Policy Committee also watching credit quality, liquidity conditions and the effects of fiscal financing.
By late 2025, the Committee said the economy still needed support because gains in the energy sector were being offset by weaker non-energy momentum, but it placed greater weight on external stability, citing the narrower Trinidad and Tobago-United States rate differential, the risk that wage adjustments could lift demand and imports, and the need to safeguard foreign reserves. In March 2026, as war in the Middle East lifted energy prices and market volatility, the Bank again held, judging that well-contained inflation, slower credit growth and non-energy weakness warranted supportive funding conditions, while stressing uncertainty, reserve adequacy risks and readiness to adjust policy if needed. It maintained the repo rate again in June 2026, noting that headline inflation had eased to 0.3% in May and core inflation was unchanged at 0.8%, while overall activity may have slowed in the first quarter as natural gas constraints moderated energy output and uncertainty weighed on business confidence and investment in the non-energy sector. The Committee also cited slower private sector credit growth, ample system liquidity and a less favourable global backdrop of weaker growth prospects, elevated inflation and tightening monetary conditions, and said it would continue to monitor developments and take further actions as necessary.