- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- monetary policy rate
- 6.5%
The Board of the National Bank of Romania (BNR) left the policy rate unchanged at 6.50 % on 7 April 2026, arguing that a still-elevated but gradually declining headline inflation (9.31 % in February after 9.69 % in December) and a weak domestic economy warrant steady policy amid heightened global uncertainty. This extends the unchanged stance at 6.50 % that has been in place since at least April 2025. The overnight lending and deposit facilities were kept at 7.50 % and 5.50 %, respectively, and reserve-requirement ratios were left intact. Core inflation (CORE2 adjusted) edged down to 8.3 % in February from 8.5 % in December, while GDP contracted 1.9 % q/q in 2025 Q4 and slowed to 0.2 % y/y, though high-frequency data point to only a mild rebound in 2026 Q1 amid broad-based softness in retail sales, services, construction and industrial output; unemployment has eased but hiring intentions and wage pressures are moderating. Private-sector credit growth picked up to 6.8 % y/y in February, driven by FX loans, as the share of leu-denominated credit fell to 67.8 %. The trade gap continued to narrow and the current-account deficit declined slightly, while the leu slipped modestly against the euro as regional risk sentiment worsened. The conflict in the Middle East has lifted global energy prices and government bond yields, posing significant upside risks to near-term inflation, which the BNR now expects to rise above prior forecasts through June before falling sharply in Q3 as base effects fade; fiscal consolidation progress is seen reinforcing medium-term disinflation, though uncertainty around future budget measures remains high. The central bank reiterated its readiness to adjust tools as needed to safeguard medium-term price and financial stability.
Rate evolution
From July 2025 to August 2026, the National Bank of Romania kept the monetary policy rate unchanged at 6.50%, extending an uninterrupted hold. Initially, it cited rising inflation, including higher adjusted CORE2 inflation from food and energy prices, wage-cost pass-through, short-term inflation expectations and leu/euro weakness, while warning that the removal of the electricity price cap and rises in VAT rates and excise duties would cause a temporary jump. It nonetheless viewed fiscal correction as disinflationary over the medium term by weakening demand and narrowing external imbalances, even as activity softened and inflation neared 10% in late 2025.
On 8 July 2026, the bank again held the rate at 6.50% as 12-month inflation rose to 10.85% in May from 9.87% in March and adjusted CORE2 inflation increased to 8.5% from 8.2%, driven by higher natural gas, fuel and administered prices, base effects, the rise in oil prices, a notable increase in rents for state-owned housing, and the indirect effects of costlier fuels, the increase in the EUR/RON exchange rate and some import prices amid high short-term inflation expectations. Uncertainty remained very high because of the domestic political situation, potential future budget-consolidation measures, the Middle East conflict and the global energy shock, even as the bank noted that economic activity stalled in 2026 Q1 after contracting in 2025 Q4, saw a slight recovery in 2026 Q2, and continued to expect inflation to decline substantially in 2026 Q3 as the direct effects of the removal of the electricity price cap and the increases in VAT rates and excise duties faded, with underlying disinflationary pressures from aggregate demand strengthening amid budget correction.
On 10 August 2026, the National Bank of Romania maintained the rate at 6.50% as inflation declined to 10.42% in June, largely due to lower volatile food and fuel prices, while adjusted CORE2 inflation stood at 8.3%, and reaffirmed that inflation would correct substantially in 2026 Q3 before gradually declining and re-entering the target variation band at end-2027 amid a widening aggregate demand deficit, while flagging risks from electricity, food and oil prices, the severe drought, fiscal policy, the Middle East conflict and the energy crisis.