- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- policy rate
- 14%
The Board of the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan left the policy rate at 14 percent per annum, arguing that tight monetary conditions are still required as headline inflation, though down to 7.1 percent year-on-year in March and projected to slow to about 6.5 percent by end-2026, remains above the 5 percent target while price stabilisation has recently lost momentum and external price pressures are building. The rate has been steady at 14 percent since a 50 bp hike in March 2025. Positive real interest rates are encouraging household saving and tempering credit growth. Buoyant domestic demand persists—real GDP expanded 8.7 percent in the first quarter, prompting an upgraded 2026 growth forecast of 7–7.5 percent. On the external side, stronger partner-currency exchange rates, high gold prices, and firm export earnings and remittances are supporting foreign-exchange supply, although rising global oil and food prices amid elevated geopolitical tensions could add to import-led inflation. The central bank reiterated that it will ensure “sufficient restrictiveness” and stands ready to tighten policy further if inflation or expectations threaten progress toward the 5 percent objective.
Rate evolution
From June 2025 to September 2026, the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan kept the policy rate at 14%, maintaining a tight stance as inflation slowed only gradually, core and services inflation remained elevated, expectations exceeded actual inflation, and robust demand drew support from credit growth, fiscal spending, remittances, investment and high activity.
By late 2025 and January 2026, it judged disinflation to be broadening as exchange-rate appreciation, lower import-price pressure and tighter monetary conditions pushed core inflation down and led to lower inflation forecasts, but services inflation, retail lending and resilient consumer demand still warranted tight policy, even as it said rate cuts could be considered if inflation and expectations kept falling. In March and April 2026, the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan said price stabilization had slowed, food-price inflation and producer prices were adding pressure, expectations remained above forecast, growth and aggregate demand had strengthened further, and geopolitical tensions were increasing oil, food, supply-chain and logistics risks, so it kept the policy rate at 14% and said conditions could be tightened further if inflation or expectations threatened progress towards the 5% target. At its 17 June meeting, it again held the rate at 14%, noting that headline inflation had fallen to 5.5% in May as energy-tariff base effects faded, but core inflation was broadly unchanged at 5.7%, domestic demand remained strong, and fiscal spending, the June energy-tariff increase and external food, energy and logistics costs posed further risks. On 29 July, it maintained the rate at 14% as headline inflation accelerated to 6.4% in June following higher regulated energy tariffs and coal price liberalization, core inflation remained at 5.7%, demand continued to grow rapidly, and tariff effects, fiscal spending and external price and supply risks warranted tight conditions despite lower household and business inflation expectations.
On 16 September, it again held the policy rate at 14%, noting that headline inflation had slowed to 6.2% in August and core inflation was around 5.5%, but a growing share of goods and services recorded price increases above 5% and inflation expectations were declining more slowly than headline inflation. Active consumption and investment demand, high global commodity, food and energy prices, transport and logistics costs, and potential second-round effects from regulated-price liberalization warranted continued tight conditions, despite signs of stabilization in some demand components, moderating credit growth and real effective exchange-rate appreciation that eased import-price pressure.