- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- key policy rate
- 15.05%
The Board of the National Bank of Ukraine kept the key policy rate at 15.0 percent, citing the need to preserve the appeal of hryvnia assets, anchor inflation expectations and safeguard exchange-rate stability as energy-driven price pressures intensify. After a 100 bp hike to 15.5 percent in March 2025 and a 50 bp cut in January 2026, the rate has been unchanged. The central bank will maintain its managed-float FX regime and an “active presence” in the market, and now projects the policy rate to remain at 15 percent through Q2 2027, with readiness to tighten if inflation risks rise. Headline inflation quickened to 7.9 percent y/y in March and is seen peaking around 9.4 percent by end-2026 before slowing to 6.5 percent in 2027 and reaching the 5 percent target in 2028; real GDP growth slipped to an estimated 0.2 percent y/y in Q1, prompting a downgrade of the 2026 growth forecast to 1.3 percent, though activity is expected to strengthen to 2.8–3.7 percent in 2027–2028. Household term hryvnia deposits continue to expand and demand for local-currency government bonds remains solid. On the external side, more than USD 53 billion in official aid is projected for 2026, supporting international reserves at USD 60–67 billion and underpinning FX-market resilience. Rising global energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict and ongoing Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure dominate the risk backdrop. The central bank reiterated it is prepared to deploy further measures, including rate hikes, should inflationary pressures intensify.
Rate evolution
Over the period, the National Bank of Ukraine held its key policy rate at 15.5% through 2025, cut it by 50 basis points to 15% in January 2026, paused, and subsequently raised it in two 50-basis-point steps to 16%. Through most of 2025, it kept a tight stance to support FX market sustainability and keep inflation expectations in check as inflation, peaking in May and then slowing, remained above forecast at times and underlying pressures from wages, labor shortages, energy costs, demand and war-related disruption persisted. Late in 2025, the risk balance turned more hawkish, with greater emphasis on energy shortages, larger budgetary needs and uncertainty over external assistance, even as harvests and official financing supported disinflation and reserves.
After the January cut, the NBU held at 15% as inflation rose on energy and fuel prices linked to the war in the Middle East, hryvnia weakness and faster wage growth, before raising it to 15.5% as persistent pressures from logistics, wage and energy costs continued despite increased raw food supply. Most recently, it raised the key policy rate to 16% in view of persistent underlying price pressures, second-round effects from supply shocks and higher medium-term inflation risks, after consumer inflation accelerated to 8.1% year on year in August, primarily on a greater-than-expected rise in fuel prices amid escalation in the Middle East and faster increases in administered tariffs due largely to Russia’s attacks on critical infrastructure. The increase aims to support the attractiveness of hryvnia assets, maintain FX market sustainability, keep inflation expectations in check and return inflation toward the 5% target, while the NBU said it stood ready to tighten further if risks intensified or consider easing if the security situation noticeably weakened consumer demand and the labor market.