- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- Reference rate
- 3.75%
The Monetary Policy Council of the National Bank of Poland left the reference rate at 3.75% on 6 May 2026, maintaining the deposit and lombard rates at 3.25% and 4.25% respectively, arguing that a fuel-driven rise in April CPI to 3.2% y/y from 3.0% in March and signs of slowing first-quarter GDP growth amid weaker wage gains and continued job losses did not justify a change while geopolitical uncertainty clouds the outlook. Following cumulative rate cuts of 200 bp between July 2025 and March 2026, the Council has now held policy steady for two meetings. The unchanged corridor is complemented by the central bank’s declared readiness to intervene in the foreign-exchange market to preserve stability. Domestically, retail sales, industrial output and construction all grew in March, yet the Council expects Q1 GDP growth to have eased, and it notes a pickup in core inflation alongside softer enterprise-sector wages and falling employment. Externally, surging global fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict are pushing up inflation, while lower agricultural prices and weaker euro-area activity contrast with stronger US growth. Future decisions will be data-dependent, with particular attention to global commodity prices, fiscal policy, fuel regulations, domestic demand and wage trends.
Rate evolution
The Monetary Policy Council of the National Bank of Poland left the reference rate unchanged at 3.75% on 8 July 2026, judging that June CPI inflation had eased to 2.5% year on year from 3.1% in May, mainly on slower fuel and food price growth. The Council also noted that energy commodity prices had fallen over the previous month, including a significant decline in oil prices, while growth in the immediate environment of the Polish economy remained subdued and inflation was still higher than at the beginning of the year. In domestic data, retail sales, industrial output, and construction and assembly production rose on an annual basis in May, while annual wage growth in the enterprise sector was lower than in the first quarter of 2026 and employment was still declining.
The July projection, based on unchanged interest rates, put annual price growth at 2.4% to 3.3% in 2026, 1.5% to 4.0% in 2027, and 0.8% to 3.9% in 2028, while GDP growth was seen at 3.0% to 4.4%, 1.8% to 3.7%, and 1.9% to 4.1%, respectively.
On 8-9 September, the Council again held the reference rate at 3.75% after CPI inflation rose to 3.4% year on year in August from 3.0% in July, mainly due to stronger annual growth in fuel prices, while inflation excluding food and energy prices was also estimated to have increased. Annual GDP growth accelerated to 3.9% in the second quarter from 3.5% in the first, amid faster investment growth and slower consumption growth, while the Council said further decisions would depend on incoming information on inflation and economic activity, including global commodity prices and inflation, the geopolitical context, fiscal policy, domestic activity growth, and wage developments.