- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- policy rate
- 1.75%
Sveriges Riksbank left its policy rate unchanged at 1.75 % with effect from 13 May 2026, judging that below-target inflation and weaker-than-expected early-year growth allow it to pause while it assesses the impact of the Middle East war on commodity prices and the broader outlook. After cutting the rate by a cumulative 50 bp to 1.75 % between June and September 2025, the Executive Board has held it steady. The current level is deemed a “good initial position” for any future adjustment. Inflation is presently below the 2 % CPIF target, and recent readings have come in clearly beneath the Riksbank’s forecast; signs of softer activity reinforce the case for patience even as surveys point to higher cost pressures in parts of the business sector. Oil and other commodity prices remain elevated and volatile amid the conflict, though market pricing still anticipates some easing later this year. The Board reiterated that the rate is expected to stay at 1.75 % “for some time to come” and it stands ready to act should the inflation or growth outlook warrant.
Rate evolution
From June 2025 to September 2026, the Riksbank lowered the policy rate from 2 per cent to 1.75 per cent, cutting in June and September 2025 and then holding it unchanged. The June cut reflected a recovery that had lost momentum, a softer inflation outlook, weak growth and high unemployment, while an August pause treated above-target inflation as temporary despite weak activity, and the September cut followed signs of easing inflation pressures even as the recovery and labour-market improvement remained delayed.
During subsequent holds through June 2026, the Riksbank said inflation had moved close to target and then below forecast while activity improved only tentatively, but uncertainty widened from trade policy and domestic demand to the war in the Middle East, energy and commodity prices, the krona and fiscal policy. On 17 June, it judged that underlying inflation was low and activity somewhat weaker than normal, but raised its policy-rate forecast somewhat and flagged a greater probability of an increase later in 2026 as war-related supply disruptions lifted inflationary pressures.
On 20 August, the Riksbank held the policy rate at 1.75 per cent, noting that growth and inflation had exceeded its June forecast but that subdued company pricing plans, fewer global supply-chain disruptions and weaker-than-expected labour-market developments left the overall outlook largely unchanged. On 24 September, it again held the rate at 1.75 per cent, but said stronger, broad-based activity and continued supply shocks meant the policy rate should rise more than projected in June, with increases expected to begin in 2026 if the outlook remained unchanged, as inflation pressures remained above normal despite measures of underlying inflation being relatively close to 2 per cent.