- Decision
- Raise
- Rate change
- 150 bps
- base rate
- 6.5%
The Executive Board of the National Bank of Moldova (NBM) raised the base rate on main short-term monetary-policy operations by 150 bp to 6.50 % per annum on 7 May 2026, citing a sharply more inflationary outlook as the Middle East conflict lifts global energy, food and commodity prices and pushes projected consumer-price growth above the 5 % ±1.5 pp target band for several quarters. After cutting the base rate from 6.25 % in August to 5.00 % in December 2025 and keeping it unchanged in February and March 2026, today’s decision marks a decisive return to policy tightening. The interest-rate corridor was widened to 4.50 % on overnight deposits, 6.75 % on repo operations and 8.50 % on overnight loans, while required-reserve ratios remain at 18 % for MDL/non-convertible funds and 26 % for foreign-currency liabilities. Annual CPI accelerated to 5.81 % in March, within the target range for a third consecutive month but already 0.75 pp higher than in February; the NBM’s updated forecast now sees average inflation at 7.0 % in 2026 and 5.8 % in 2027, both notably above February projections. Early-year data signal a firming economy—industrial output rose 2.8 % y/y and retail trade 16.3 % in January-February, while excess liquidity swelled to MDL 5.2 bn in Q1. Externally, Brent oil and European gas prices have climbed and the US dollar has strengthened amid heightened geopolitical risk and weaker euro-area growth, intensifying imported inflation pressures. The central bank pledges vigilant monitoring of domestic and global conditions and stands ready to deploy further tools to secure medium-term price stability.
Rate evolution
The National Bank of Moldova moved from a June 2025 hold into a 150 basis point easing cycle through December, paused at 5.00% in early 2026, and then reversed course with increases of 150 basis points in May, 50 basis points on 18 June, 50 basis points on 6 August and 150 basis points on 17 September 2026, taking the base rate applied to the main short-term monetary policy operations to 9.00%. The earlier cuts reflected moderating inflation, transmission of previous restrictive measures and disinflationary aggregate demand, while reserve-ratio reductions sought to lower credit costs and support demand.
Statements initially described risks as broadly balanced with a disinflationary bias, but by May 2026 the balance had turned inflationary as the Middle East conflict raised energy, food and raw-material prices. The June increase responded to intensifying supply pressures, stronger domestic demand and inflation above the target range, while the August move addressed consumer demand and persistent supply shocks. On 17 September, the Bank maintained a restrictive stance as adverse international energy, food and raw-material prices intensified supply pressures and household disposable income supported domestic demand. Annual inflation rose to 6.96% in August, above the upper bound of the range around the 5.0% medium-term target, while the Bank revised its inflation projection down for the third quarter of 2026 and up for the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first half of 2027 relative to its August forecast.