- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- monetary policy rate
- 6.5%
The Board of the National Bank of Romania (NBR) on 15 May 2026 kept the policy rate at 6.50%—with the deposit and Lombard facility rates maintained at 5.50% and 7.50%, respectively—and left minimum-reserve ratios unchanged, judging that surging energy- and war-related price pressures are keeping inflation in double digits even as economic activity contracts. The key rate has been steady at 6.50% since at least May 2025. Operating conditions remain tight but stable: interbank rates have plateaued since early March, while government-bond yields spiked in late April amid Middle East tensions and domestic politics before retracing, and the leu briefly depreciated against the euro before partially recovering. Headline CPI accelerated to 10.71% y/y in April from 9.87% in March—well above the 1.5-3.5% target band—driven by jumps in natural-gas, fuel and administered prices; adjusted CORE2 inflation eased to 8.2% in March. GDP fell 0.2% q/q (-1.7% y/y) in Q1 2026 after a 2.0% contraction in Q4 2025, though retail sales and industrial output remained weak and labour-market indicators softened. Private-sector credit growth inched up to 7.1% y/y in March, with the leu share stable at 67.8%. The current-account gap narrowed further early in 2026, even as trade-balance improvement slowed. The NBR highlighted elevated global uncertainties from the Middle East war and the energy crisis, alongside external monetary-policy moves, and projects inflation to peak in Q2 before a sharp correction in Q3 and a return to the target band in Q3 2027; it pledged to monitor conditions closely and stands ready to act to preserve medium-term price and financial stability.
Rate evolution
From July 2025 to August 2026, the National Bank of Romania kept the monetary policy rate unchanged at 6.50%, extending an uninterrupted hold. Initially, it cited rising inflation, including higher adjusted CORE2 inflation from food and energy prices, wage-cost pass-through, short-term inflation expectations and leu/euro weakness, while warning that the removal of the electricity price cap and rises in VAT rates and excise duties would cause a temporary jump. It nonetheless viewed fiscal correction as disinflationary over the medium term by weakening demand and narrowing external imbalances, even as activity softened and inflation neared 10% in late 2025.
On 8 July 2026, the bank again held the rate at 6.50% as 12-month inflation rose to 10.85% in May from 9.87% in March and adjusted CORE2 inflation increased to 8.5% from 8.2%, driven by higher natural gas, fuel and administered prices, base effects, the rise in oil prices, a notable increase in rents for state-owned housing, and the indirect effects of costlier fuels, the increase in the EUR/RON exchange rate and some import prices amid high short-term inflation expectations. Uncertainty remained very high because of the domestic political situation, potential future budget-consolidation measures, the Middle East conflict and the global energy shock, even as the bank noted that economic activity stalled in 2026 Q1 after contracting in 2025 Q4, saw a slight recovery in 2026 Q2, and continued to expect inflation to decline substantially in 2026 Q3 as the direct effects of the removal of the electricity price cap and the increases in VAT rates and excise duties faded, with underlying disinflationary pressures from aggregate demand strengthening amid budget correction.
On 10 August 2026, the National Bank of Romania maintained the rate at 6.50% as inflation declined to 10.42% in June, largely due to lower volatile food and fuel prices, while adjusted CORE2 inflation stood at 8.3%, and reaffirmed that inflation would correct substantially in 2026 Q3 before gradually declining and re-entering the target variation band at end-2027 amid a widening aggregate demand deficit, while flagging risks from electricity, food and oil prices, the severe drought, fiscal policy, the Middle East conflict and the energy crisis.