- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- reference rate
- 3.75%
Poland’s Monetary Policy Council left the Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP) reference rate at 3.75% on 2 June, with the lombard, deposit, rediscount and discount rates unchanged at 4.25%, 3.25%, 3.80% and 3.85% respectively, judging existing settings adequate amid a moderation in domestic inflation and growing external risks. After cumulative 200 bp of cuts since May 2025—including the latest 25 bp reduction in March 2026—the policy rate has been steady for three consecutive meetings. The corridor for overnight operations therefore remains at 3.25–4.25%. Headline CPI eased to 3.1 % y/y in May from 3.2 % in April as food price growth slowed, while Q1 GDP growth decelerated to 3.5 % y/y from 4.1 % in Q4 2025 on softer investment and consumption; April data showed annual increases in retail sales, industrial output and construction activity even as enterprise wage growth and employment weakened. Externally, surging global fuel prices linked to Middle-East supply constraints and a gradual rise in agricultural commodity prices have lifted inflation abroad, while the geopolitical backdrop clouds the outlook. The Council reiterated that future moves will hinge on incoming data for inflation, activity, fiscal measures and commodity prices, and it stands ready to act, including via foreign-exchange intervention, to safeguard macro-financial stability and return inflation to the NBP target over the medium term.
Rate evolution
The Monetary Policy Council of the National Bank of Poland left the reference rate unchanged at 3.75% on 8 July 2026, judging that June CPI inflation had eased to 2.5% year on year from 3.1% in May, mainly on slower fuel and food price growth. The Council also noted that energy commodity prices had fallen over the previous month, including a significant decline in oil prices, while growth in the immediate environment of the Polish economy remained subdued and inflation was still higher than at the beginning of the year. In domestic data, retail sales, industrial output, and construction and assembly production rose on an annual basis in May, while annual wage growth in the enterprise sector was lower than in the first quarter of 2026 and employment was still declining.
The July projection, based on unchanged interest rates, put annual price growth at 2.4% to 3.3% in 2026, 1.5% to 4.0% in 2027, and 0.8% to 3.9% in 2028, while GDP growth was seen at 3.0% to 4.4%, 1.8% to 3.7%, and 1.9% to 4.1%, respectively.
On 8-9 September, the Council again held the reference rate at 3.75% after CPI inflation rose to 3.4% year on year in August from 3.0% in July, mainly due to stronger annual growth in fuel prices, while inflation excluding food and energy prices was also estimated to have increased. Annual GDP growth accelerated to 3.9% in the second quarter from 3.5% in the first, amid faster investment growth and slower consumption growth, while the Council said further decisions would depend on incoming information on inflation and economic activity, including global commodity prices and inflation, the geopolitical context, fiscal policy, domestic activity growth, and wage developments.