- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- Reference interest rate
- 5.75%
The National Bank of Serbia held its key policy rate at 5.75% on 11 June 2026 and left the deposit and lending facility rates unchanged at 4.5% and 7.0%, respectively, saying the decision reflected actual and expected inflation and risks from the international environment. The key rate has been unchanged at 5.75% since at least June 2025 in the provided statements. April y-o-y inflation rose to 3.3% from 2.8% in March, driven almost entirely by higher global oil prices and domestic petroleum product prices, and the Executive Board expects inflation to remain within the 3±1.5% target tolerance band until September, then temporarily edge above the upper bound around end-2026 and early 2027 before returning within the band by mid-2027; it said the disinflation path should be supported by the still restrictive monetary stance, easing external cost pressures and slower real wage growth. Real GDP growth was 3.2% y-o-y in Q1 2026, above the 3.0% flash estimate, while monthly indicators for April pointed to positive developments in industry, retail trade and tourism, in line with the May projection of 3% growth in 2026, and lending to corporates and households accelerated to 17.1% y-o-y in April. The National Bank of Serbia said it will maintain relative exchange rate stability as the Middle East conflict, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz for most ships and higher oil prices raise uncertainty over inflation and activity, with euro area inflation increasing to 3.2% in May; it reiterated that it will use all available instruments if higher oil prices generate stronger second-round effects through inflation expectations.
Rate evolution
From June 2025 through September 2026, the National Bank of Serbia kept the key policy rate unchanged at 5.75%, extending a pause with no net change. The hold reflected actual and expected inflation and uncertainty, which eased in early autumn before worsening again, with mid-2025 decisions balancing weather- and drought-driven food inflation and an oil-price rise from Middle East tensions against softer domestic activity, while later decisions judged that the Government’s margin-capping decree, lower imported cost pressures, exchange-rate stability and earlier easing would contain inflation as lending and Serbia Expo 2027-related investment supported growth.
On 10 September 2026, the Executive Board again held the rate at 5.75%, citing actual and expected inflation and risks from the international environment. Year-on-year inflation remained within the 3±1.5% target band and stood at 1.9% in July, mainly because an exceptionally good harvest lowered fruit and vegetable prices, while significant second-round effects had not materialised and the economy proved more resilient than expected to the energy shock. The August projection envisaged inflation remaining within the target band over the next two years, moving around 4% from September 2026 and during 2027 before gradually declining, while core inflation stood at 4.5% in July.
Economic activity also exceeded expectations, with real gross domestic product growth accelerating to 3.8% year on year in the second quarter and prompting the National Bank of Serbia to raise its 2026 growth projection to 3.2%, while the Executive Board maintained a cautious stance as uncertainty over the Middle East conflict and oil prices remained elevated and reiterated that it would use all available instruments if stronger second-round effects lifted other prices through inflation expectations.