- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- policy rate
- 14%
The Central Bank of Uzbekistan held its policy rate unchanged at 14 percent on 17 June 2026, saying that although headline inflation has declined in recent months, the broadly unchanged dynamics of underlying inflation, strong domestic demand and elevated external uncertainty require tight monetary conditions to be maintained. In May, annual headline inflation slowed to 5.5 percent in line with the forecast path, largely because the previous year’s energy tariff base effects faded, while core inflation was 5.7 percent as services inflation continued to ease but food inflation accelerated somewhat. The Central Bank kept its end-2026 inflation forecast at around 6.5 percent and projected economic growth in the 7.0-7.5 percent band, citing robust retail trade, services, tourism and investment, with higher fiscal spending expected to support activity and demand in coming quarters. It also said positive real interest rates are encouraging savings, supporting balanced credit growth and helping contain price pressures. The June increase in energy tariffs is expected to add short-term inflation pressure and second-round effects through transport and production costs over coming quarters, while global food and energy price volatility, rising logistics costs and tight policy by some foreign central banks could sustain imported inflation and high external financing costs. The Central Bank said gradual monetary easing would depend on a sustained decline in inflation expectations, limited secondary tariff effects and an improved core inflation outlook.
Rate evolution
From June 2025 to September 2026, the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan kept the policy rate at 14%, maintaining a tight stance as inflation slowed only gradually, core and services inflation remained elevated, expectations exceeded actual inflation, and robust demand drew support from credit growth, fiscal spending, remittances, investment and high activity.
By late 2025 and January 2026, it judged disinflation to be broadening as exchange-rate appreciation, lower import-price pressure and tighter monetary conditions pushed core inflation down and led to lower inflation forecasts, but services inflation, retail lending and resilient consumer demand still warranted tight policy, even as it said rate cuts could be considered if inflation and expectations kept falling. In March and April 2026, the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan said price stabilization had slowed, food-price inflation and producer prices were adding pressure, expectations remained above forecast, growth and aggregate demand had strengthened further, and geopolitical tensions were increasing oil, food, supply-chain and logistics risks, so it kept the policy rate at 14% and said conditions could be tightened further if inflation or expectations threatened progress towards the 5% target. At its 17 June meeting, it again held the rate at 14%, noting that headline inflation had fallen to 5.5% in May as energy-tariff base effects faded, but core inflation was broadly unchanged at 5.7%, domestic demand remained strong, and fiscal spending, the June energy-tariff increase and external food, energy and logistics costs posed further risks. On 29 July, it maintained the rate at 14% as headline inflation accelerated to 6.4% in June following higher regulated energy tariffs and coal price liberalization, core inflation remained at 5.7%, demand continued to grow rapidly, and tariff effects, fiscal spending and external price and supply risks warranted tight conditions despite lower household and business inflation expectations.
On 16 September, it again held the policy rate at 14%, noting that headline inflation had slowed to 6.2% in August and core inflation was around 5.5%, but a growing share of goods and services recorded price increases above 5% and inflation expectations were declining more slowly than headline inflation. Active consumption and investment demand, high global commodity, food and energy prices, transport and logistics costs, and potential second-round effects from regulated-price liberalization warranted continued tight conditions, despite signs of stabilization in some demand components, moderating credit growth and real effective exchange-rate appreciation that eased import-price pressure.