- Decision
- Raise
- Rate change
- 50 bps
- base rate
- 7%
The National Bank of Moldova raised its base rate for main short-term monetary policy operations to 7.00% on 18 June 2026, saying it was continuing restrictive policy as inflationary pressures intensified from higher international energy, food and raw-material prices and from domestic demand supported by household income, with the move intended to slow consumer price growth and return inflation to the 5.0% target band of ±1.5 percentage points. The overnight lending and deposit rates were set at 9.00% and 5.00%, while required reserve ratios were left unchanged at 18.0% for MDL and non-convertible foreign-currency liabilities and 26.0% for freely convertible currency liabilities. Annual inflation rose to 6.76% in May 2026, above the upper bound of the target range and above the level projected in the May 2026 Inflation Report, while first-quarter 2026 GDP growth moderated to 0.4% year on year; the NBM also noted a 14.2% annual increase in new consumer loans in MDL in May. The central bank said its May forecast still pointed to inflation rising through the end of 2026 before declining from the first quarter of 2027. Externally, it cited persistent geopolitical and trade tensions, risks to major logistics routes including the Strait of Hormuz, subdued euro area growth, and high volatility in oil and European gas prices alongside a moderate rise in international food prices. The NBM said it would continue to monitor domestic and external conditions and stood ready to use its tools as needed to maintain price stability.
Rate evolution
The National Bank of Moldova moved from a June 2025 hold into a 150 basis point easing cycle through December, paused at 5.00% in early 2026, and then reversed course with increases of 150 basis points in May, 50 basis points on 18 June, 50 basis points on 6 August and 150 basis points on 17 September 2026, taking the base rate applied to the main short-term monetary policy operations to 9.00%. The earlier cuts reflected moderating inflation, transmission of previous restrictive measures and disinflationary aggregate demand, while reserve-ratio reductions sought to lower credit costs and support demand.
Statements initially described risks as broadly balanced with a disinflationary bias, but by May 2026 the balance had turned inflationary as the Middle East conflict raised energy, food and raw-material prices. The June increase responded to intensifying supply pressures, stronger domestic demand and inflation above the target range, while the August move addressed consumer demand and persistent supply shocks. On 17 September, the Bank maintained a restrictive stance as adverse international energy, food and raw-material prices intensified supply pressures and household disposable income supported domestic demand. Annual inflation rose to 6.96% in August, above the upper bound of the range around the 5.0% medium-term target, while the Bank revised its inflation projection down for the third quarter of 2026 and up for the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first half of 2027 relative to its August forecast.