- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- key policy rate
- 15%
The Board of the National Bank of Ukraine left its key policy rate unchanged at 15%, saying current monetary conditions remain sufficiently tight, demand for hryvnia saving instruments is strong, and risks linked to the war in the Middle East and external financing have eased, while stressing that the war remains the main threat to inflation and economic activity. Headline inflation slowed to 8.2% year on year in May on seasonal food supply factors, while core inflation accelerated to 7.9%, with both above the path in the April 2026 Inflation Report; the National Bank of Ukraine expects inflation to stay near current levels in the coming months, accelerate at the end of the year, and return to a downward path in 2027 toward its 5% target, while noting that unchanged rates should also support lending, which is growing steadily at a rapid pace. After lower-than-expected external aid in January-May, the central bank said Ukraine may receive around USD 13 billion in June under support programs including Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration and the Ukraine Support Loan, and it expects sufficient financing to cover the budget deficit, increase reserves and preserve foreign-exchange market sustainability. It also said lower oil prices amid intensified diplomatic efforts over the Middle East should reduce energy import costs and help curb inflation, though a prolonged conflict there would raise energy prices and weigh on the economy and inflation trends. The National Bank of Ukraine said it stands ready to raise the key policy rate if underlying price pressures intensify and will base its next decision on the July macroeconomic forecast.
Rate evolution
Over the period, the National Bank of Ukraine held its key policy rate at 15.5% through 2025, cut it by 50 basis points to 15% in January 2026, paused, and subsequently raised it in two 50-basis-point steps to 16%. Through most of 2025, it kept a tight stance to support FX market sustainability and keep inflation expectations in check as inflation, peaking in May and then slowing, remained above forecast at times and underlying pressures from wages, labor shortages, energy costs, demand and war-related disruption persisted. Late in 2025, the risk balance turned more hawkish, with greater emphasis on energy shortages, larger budgetary needs and uncertainty over external assistance, even as harvests and official financing supported disinflation and reserves.
After the January cut, the NBU held at 15% as inflation rose on energy and fuel prices linked to the war in the Middle East, hryvnia weakness and faster wage growth, before raising it to 15.5% as persistent pressures from logistics, wage and energy costs continued despite increased raw food supply. Most recently, it raised the key policy rate to 16% in view of persistent underlying price pressures, second-round effects from supply shocks and higher medium-term inflation risks, after consumer inflation accelerated to 8.1% year on year in August, primarily on a greater-than-expected rise in fuel prices amid escalation in the Middle East and faster increases in administered tariffs due largely to Russia’s attacks on critical infrastructure. The increase aims to support the attractiveness of hryvnia assets, maintain FX market sustainability, keep inflation expectations in check and return inflation toward the 5% target, while the NBU said it stood ready to tighten further if risks intensified or consider easing if the security situation noticeably weakened consumer demand and the labor market.