- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- Policy rate after decision
- 3.75%
The National Bank of Poland’s Monetary Policy Council kept NBP interest rates unchanged, leaving the reference rate at 3.75%, as June CPI inflation eased to 2.5% y/y from 3.1% in May and domestic activity indicators improved, while growth in Poland’s immediate external environment remained subdued and the inflation outlook stayed uncertain. The Council said May retail sales, industrial output, and construction and assembly production all increased in annual terms, while wage growth in the enterprise sector slowed from 2026 Q1 and employment there continued to decline. The July projection, based on unchanged NBP rates, showed a 50% probability of inflation at 2.4-3.3% and GDP growth at 3.0-4.4% in 2026. On the external side, the Council noted lower global energy prices, especially oil, but said the outlook for global activity and inflation remained uncertain, particularly because of the conflict in the Middle East; NBP also said it may intervene in the foreign exchange market. Further decisions will depend on incoming information on inflation and economic activity, with fiscal policy, wage growth, commodity prices, foreign inflation, and the geopolitical context identified as key risks.
Rate evolution
The Monetary Policy Council of the National Bank of Poland left the reference rate unchanged at 3.75% on 8 July 2026, judging that June CPI inflation had eased to 2.5% year on year from 3.1% in May, mainly on slower fuel and food price growth. The Council also noted that energy commodity prices had fallen over the previous month, including a significant decline in oil prices, while growth in the immediate environment of the Polish economy remained subdued and inflation was still higher than at the beginning of the year. In domestic data, retail sales, industrial output, and construction and assembly production rose on an annual basis in May, while annual wage growth in the enterprise sector was lower than in the first quarter of 2026 and employment was still declining.
The July projection, based on unchanged interest rates, put annual price growth at 2.4% to 3.3% in 2026, 1.5% to 4.0% in 2027, and 0.8% to 3.9% in 2028, while GDP growth was seen at 3.0% to 4.4%, 1.8% to 3.7%, and 1.9% to 4.1%, respectively.
On 8-9 September, the Council again held the reference rate at 3.75% after CPI inflation rose to 3.4% year on year in August from 3.0% in July, mainly due to stronger annual growth in fuel prices, while inflation excluding food and energy prices was also estimated to have increased. Annual GDP growth accelerated to 3.9% in the second quarter from 3.5% in the first, amid faster investment growth and slower consumption growth, while the Council said further decisions would depend on incoming information on inflation and economic activity, including global commodity prices and inflation, the geopolitical context, fiscal policy, domestic activity growth, and wage developments.