- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- monetary policy rate
- 6.5%
The National Bank of Romania (NBR) kept its monetary policy rate at 6.50% and left the lending (Lombard) and deposit facility rates unchanged at 7.50% and 5.50%, respectively, citing very high uncertainty around the inflation outlook even as it expects inflation to ease later in the year amid longer-term disinflationary pressure from aggregate demand and budget correction. The NBR also maintained minimum reserve requirement ratios on leu- and foreign currency-denominated liabilities of credit institutions. Annual inflation rose to 10.85% in May, with adjusted CORE2 inflation also edging up, while economic activity stalled in 2026 Q1 after the prior quarter’s contraction and is seen recovering slightly in 2026 Q2; private sector credit growth picked up to 7.7% in May, driven by stronger foreign currency lending. On the external side, the trade and current account deficits continued to decline year on year but at a slower pace in April, while EUR/RON largely reversed its mid-quarter decline and USD/RON continued to trend upward. The NBR said the Middle East conflict, the global energy shock, and monetary policy decisions by the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve remain relevant external risks, and reiterated that it is closely monitoring domestic and international developments and stands ready to use its tools to secure medium-term price stability while safeguarding financial stability.
Rate evolution
From July 2025 to August 2026, the National Bank of Romania kept the monetary policy rate unchanged at 6.50%, extending an uninterrupted hold. Initially, it cited rising inflation, including higher adjusted CORE2 inflation from food and energy prices, wage-cost pass-through, short-term inflation expectations and leu/euro weakness, while warning that the removal of the electricity price cap and rises in VAT rates and excise duties would cause a temporary jump. It nonetheless viewed fiscal correction as disinflationary over the medium term by weakening demand and narrowing external imbalances, even as activity softened and inflation neared 10% in late 2025.
On 8 July 2026, the bank again held the rate at 6.50% as 12-month inflation rose to 10.85% in May from 9.87% in March and adjusted CORE2 inflation increased to 8.5% from 8.2%, driven by higher natural gas, fuel and administered prices, base effects, the rise in oil prices, a notable increase in rents for state-owned housing, and the indirect effects of costlier fuels, the increase in the EUR/RON exchange rate and some import prices amid high short-term inflation expectations. Uncertainty remained very high because of the domestic political situation, potential future budget-consolidation measures, the Middle East conflict and the global energy shock, even as the bank noted that economic activity stalled in 2026 Q1 after contracting in 2025 Q4, saw a slight recovery in 2026 Q2, and continued to expect inflation to decline substantially in 2026 Q3 as the direct effects of the removal of the electricity price cap and the increases in VAT rates and excise duties faded, with underlying disinflationary pressures from aggregate demand strengthening amid budget correction.
On 10 August 2026, the National Bank of Romania maintained the rate at 6.50% as inflation declined to 10.42% in June, largely due to lower volatile food and fuel prices, while adjusted CORE2 inflation stood at 8.3%, and reaffirmed that inflation would correct substantially in 2026 Q3 before gradually declining and re-entering the target variation band at end-2027 amid a widening aggregate demand deficit, while flagging risks from electricity, food and oil prices, the severe drought, fiscal policy, the Middle East conflict and the energy crisis.