- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- monetary policy rate
- 6.5%
The National Bank of Romania (NBR) held its monetary policy rate at 6.50% in August, citing high uncertainty as inflation remained elevated and economic activity weak, while forecasting a substantial inflation correction in the third quarter. The NBR has maintained the rate at 6.50% at every decision since August 2025. It kept the lending facility rate at 7.50%, the deposit facility rate at 5.50%, and minimum reserve requirement ratios on leu- and foreign currency-denominated liabilities unchanged. Annual inflation eased to 10.42% in June, and the NBR expects it to decline gradually after some fourth-quarter fluctuations and re-enter the target variation band at end-2027, supported by a widening aggregate demand deficit. Gross domestic product contracted year on year in the first quarter, while private-sector credit growth accelerated to 8.4% in June. The current account deficit continued to decline year on year in April-May, albeit more slowly, while the EUR/RON exchange rate remained at elevated levels. Risks stem from the Middle East conflict and energy crisis, crude oil prices, drought-related food and electricity prices, and uncertainty over further budget consolidation. The NBR said it remains ready to use its available tools to secure medium-term price stability while safeguarding financial stability.
Rate evolution
From July 2025 to August 2026, the National Bank of Romania kept the monetary policy rate unchanged at 6.50%, extending an uninterrupted hold. Initially, it cited rising inflation, including higher adjusted CORE2 inflation from food and energy prices, wage-cost pass-through, short-term inflation expectations and leu/euro weakness, while warning that the removal of the electricity price cap and rises in VAT rates and excise duties would cause a temporary jump. It nonetheless viewed fiscal correction as disinflationary over the medium term by weakening demand and narrowing external imbalances, even as activity softened and inflation neared 10% in late 2025.
On 8 July 2026, the bank again held the rate at 6.50% as 12-month inflation rose to 10.85% in May from 9.87% in March and adjusted CORE2 inflation increased to 8.5% from 8.2%, driven by higher natural gas, fuel and administered prices, base effects, the rise in oil prices, a notable increase in rents for state-owned housing, and the indirect effects of costlier fuels, the increase in the EUR/RON exchange rate and some import prices amid high short-term inflation expectations. Uncertainty remained very high because of the domestic political situation, potential future budget-consolidation measures, the Middle East conflict and the global energy shock, even as the bank noted that economic activity stalled in 2026 Q1 after contracting in 2025 Q4, saw a slight recovery in 2026 Q2, and continued to expect inflation to decline substantially in 2026 Q3 as the direct effects of the removal of the electricity price cap and the increases in VAT rates and excise duties faded, with underlying disinflationary pressures from aggregate demand strengthening amid budget correction.
On 10 August 2026, the National Bank of Romania maintained the rate at 6.50% as inflation declined to 10.42% in June, largely due to lower volatile food and fuel prices, while adjusted CORE2 inflation stood at 8.3%, and reaffirmed that inflation would correct substantially in 2026 Q3 before gradually declining and re-entering the target variation band at end-2027 amid a widening aggregate demand deficit, while flagging risks from electricity, food and oil prices, the severe drought, fiscal policy, the Middle East conflict and the energy crisis.