- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- policy rate
- 1.75%
Sveriges Riksbank held its policy rate at 1.75% as the economic outlook remained largely unchanged, balancing stronger-than-forecast summer growth and inflation against subdued corporate pricing plans and weaker-than-expected labour-market developments. The central bank cut the rate by 25 basis points to 1.75% in September 2025 and has held it there since. The decision applies from August 26. Measured inflation remains low largely because of temporary fiscal measures, while underlying inflation excluding energy and the direct effects of those measures is close to 2%; GDP growth appears stronger than forecast and economic sentiment has improved, although unemployment remains high. The Middle East war continues to disrupt supply, but oil and some other commodity prices have fallen since the spring and global supply-chain disruptions have eased. The central bank said the probability of a rate increase later in 2026 remains and it would tighten policy if the summer inflation surprise marked the start of a larger and more persistent upturn.
Rate evolution
From June 2025 to September 2026, the Riksbank lowered the policy rate from 2 per cent to 1.75 per cent, cutting in June and September 2025 and then holding it unchanged. The June cut reflected a recovery that had lost momentum, a softer inflation outlook, weak growth and high unemployment, while an August pause treated above-target inflation as temporary despite weak activity, and the September cut followed signs of easing inflation pressures even as the recovery and labour-market improvement remained delayed.
During subsequent holds through June 2026, the Riksbank said inflation had moved close to target and then below forecast while activity improved only tentatively, but uncertainty widened from trade policy and domestic demand to the war in the Middle East, energy and commodity prices, the krona and fiscal policy. On 17 June, it judged that underlying inflation was low and activity somewhat weaker than normal, but raised its policy-rate forecast somewhat and flagged a greater probability of an increase later in 2026 as war-related supply disruptions lifted inflationary pressures.
On 20 August, the Riksbank held the policy rate at 1.75 per cent, noting that growth and inflation had exceeded its June forecast but that subdued company pricing plans, fewer global supply-chain disruptions and weaker-than-expected labour-market developments left the overall outlook largely unchanged. On 24 September, it again held the rate at 1.75 per cent, but said stronger, broad-based activity and continued supply shocks meant the policy rate should rise more than projected in June, with increases expected to begin in 2026 if the outlook remained unchanged, as inflation pressures remained above normal despite measures of underlying inflation being relatively close to 2 per cent.