- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- Reference rate
- 3.75%
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) Monetary Policy Council held the reference rate at 3.75% against a backdrop of rising inflation and stronger economic growth. The rate has been unchanged since a 25-basis-point cut in March, following earlier 25-bp cuts in October-December 2025. Consumer price inflation rose to 3.4% year on year in August from 3.0% in July, mainly because of fuel prices, while core inflation was also estimated to have increased. GDP growth accelerated to 3.9% in the second quarter from 3.5% in the first, supported by faster investment growth despite slower consumption, while wage growth eased and enterprise-sector employment continued to decline. Inflation in major advanced economies has risen since the start of 2026 because of higher energy commodity prices, with the Middle East conflict adding uncertainty to the global outlook. Further decisions will depend on incoming inflation and activity data, with global commodity prices, fiscal policy, domestic growth and wages among the key risks, and NBP may intervene in the foreign exchange market.
Rate evolution
The Monetary Policy Council of the National Bank of Poland left the reference rate unchanged at 3.75% on 8 July 2026, judging that June CPI inflation had eased to 2.5% year on year from 3.1% in May, mainly on slower fuel and food price growth. The Council also noted that energy commodity prices had fallen over the previous month, including a significant decline in oil prices, while growth in the immediate environment of the Polish economy remained subdued and inflation was still higher than at the beginning of the year. In domestic data, retail sales, industrial output, and construction and assembly production rose on an annual basis in May, while annual wage growth in the enterprise sector was lower than in the first quarter of 2026 and employment was still declining.
The July projection, based on unchanged interest rates, put annual price growth at 2.4% to 3.3% in 2026, 1.5% to 4.0% in 2027, and 0.8% to 3.9% in 2028, while GDP growth was seen at 3.0% to 4.4%, 1.8% to 3.7%, and 1.9% to 4.1%, respectively.
On 8-9 September, the Council again held the reference rate at 3.75% after CPI inflation rose to 3.4% year on year in August from 3.0% in July, mainly due to stronger annual growth in fuel prices, while inflation excluding food and energy prices was also estimated to have increased. Annual GDP growth accelerated to 3.9% in the second quarter from 3.5% in the first, amid faster investment growth and slower consumption growth, while the Council said further decisions would depend on incoming information on inflation and economic activity, including global commodity prices and inflation, the geopolitical context, fiscal policy, domestic activity growth, and wage developments.