- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- key rate
- 14%
The Bank of Russia held its key rate at 14.00% on 11 September, citing significantly increased price pressures alongside moderate economic growth in 2026 Q3, while expecting underlying inflation to resume declining as temporary production-capacity constraints fade and demand grows moderately. The decision followed 300 basis points of cuts from 17.00% in September 2025, including a 25 bp reduction in July 2026. Annual inflation stood at 6.3% as of 7 September, and the central bank projects it at 6.0-7.0% in 2026 before returning to the 4.0% target in 2027. Lending activity has remained elevated, primarily in the corporate segment, while labour-market tightness is gradually easing. The Bank of Russia said risks from a deteriorating global outlook and rising global price pressures amid geopolitical tensions remain proinflationary. Further rate decisions will depend on inflation, inflation expectations and domestic and external risks, while a higher structural primary budget deficit could require tighter policy than assumed in the baseline scenario.
Rate evolution
From June 2025 to July 2026, the Bank of Russia lowered the key rate by 600 basis points to 14.00%, with 300 basis points of easing delivered in June and July 2025, smaller cuts thereafter as disinflation became uneven, and successive 25 basis point reductions on 19 June and 24 July 2026. Early decisions cited falling underlying inflation, slowing domestic demand and the economy’s return to a balanced growth path, although monetary conditions remained tight, the labour market stayed tight and inflation expectations remained elevated. Through late 2025, cuts slowed as underlying price growth stayed above 4%, lending accelerated, and one-off moves in tariffs, fuel, fruit and vegetables, value added tax and administered prices clouded the signal, while the Bank’s risk framing hardened from slightly reduced but still prevailing proinflationary risks to increased proinflationary risks in October.
The June and July 2026 cuts reflected moderate economic growth after a temporary decline at the beginning of the year, slower current price growth in April and May, and average price growth of 5.0% in annualised terms in the second quarter, but the Bank noted that underlying inflation remained at 4–5%, inflation expectations had increased and wage growth continued to outpace productivity. On 24 July, it said a smoother key rate decrease was required because of the direct and second-round effects of temporary production capacity shutdowns in certain sectors and more expansionary fiscal policy over the three-year horizon than projected in April. On 11 September, the Bank held the key rate at 14.00% as current price pressures increased significantly, underlying price growth accelerated to 5–6% primarily because of a temporary reduction in production capacities in certain sectors, annual inflation reached 6.3% on 7 September and proinflationary risks increased, while it maintained that further decisions would depend on inflation, inflation expectations and risks from domestic and external conditions.