- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- discount rate
- 2%
The Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) held the discount rate at 2%, with secured-loan refinancing and temporary accommodation rates also unchanged, citing contained inflation and solid economic growth while maintaining a prudent stance toward global uncertainty and the Middle East conflict. It has kept the discount rate unchanged at every quarterly decision since September 2025. The central bank continued to manage liquidity through open market operations, with banking system liquidity remaining ample. It raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 11.48%, supported by strong artificial intelligence-related exports and investment, and projected growth of 5.82% in 2027. It forecast consumer price index inflation at 2.03% in 2026 before slowing to 1.83% in 2027. The central bank also eased selective credit controls effective September 18, raising the loan-to-value cap for a natural person’s second housing loan from 60% to 70% as real estate credit concentration and speculative activity declined. It reiterated that the NT dollar exchange rate is market-determined but that it may counter disorderly movements. Elevated commodity prices and Middle East tensions sustained global inflation pressures, while AI investment supported growth. The central bank will monitor inflation, global monetary tightening, financial conditions and other risks, and adjust policy in a timely manner.
Rate evolution
From June 2025 through September 2026, the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) kept its policy rates unchanged, leaving the discount rate at 2% throughout as it maintained a cautious hold amid contained inflation and solid domestic growth. Across the period, the Board cited gradual disinflation, mild inflationary pressures and ample liquidity, while noting that strong demand for artificial intelligence and other emerging technology applications, earlier tariff-related front-loading, and later a pickup in private consumption supported exports and investment.
Its risk framing centred on uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy, China’s slowdown risk, major central bank actions, geopolitical conflicts and weather, with uncertainty easing somewhat by September 2025 before broadening again by December. In March 2026, despite revising inflation forecasts higher after the Middle East conflict lifted oil and commodity prices, the Bank again held rates, judging inflation still moderate and growth solid on AI-led exports, investment and firmer consumption. In the second quarter of 2026, it left the discount rate, the rate on refinancing of secured loans and the rate on temporary accommodations unchanged at 2%, 2.375% and 4.25%, respectively, even as it raised its GDP growth forecast to 9.45% and nudged up its CPI and core CPI forecasts to 1.91% and 1.90%, saying a prudent hold would support sound economic and financial development. In September 2026, the Board kept all three rates at those levels, judging inflation would remain contained and ease below 2% in 2027 while growth stayed solid, even as it raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 11.48% on sustained AI-related demand and lifted its CPI and core CPI forecasts to 2.03% and 2.16% given elevated oil prices and persistent services inflation.