- Decision
- Raise
- Rate change
- 150 bps
- base rate
- 9%
The National Bank of Moldova (NBM) unanimously raised its base rate by 150 basis points to 9.00% in September 2026, maintaining a restrictive stance as supply shocks from international energy, food and raw-material prices combined with domestic demand supported by household disposable income, while the inflation outlook was revised down for the third quarter but up for the fourth quarter of 2026 and first half of 2027. After cutting the rate by 100 basis points to 5.00% in December 2025, the NBM held it through March 2026 and raised it by a cumulative 250 basis points from May through August. The central bank lifted the overnight lending and deposit rates to 11.00% and 7.00%, respectively, and the repo rate to 9.25%, while leaving reserve requirements unchanged. Annual inflation rose to 6.96% in August, above the upper limit of the ±1.5 percentage-point band around the 5.0% medium-term target, while gross domestic product grew 0.9% year on year in the second quarter and new lending in Moldovan leu fell 2.5% from July. Geopolitical uncertainty and volatile energy markets persisted, with Brent oil and Dutch TTF gas prices rising since early September amid renewed US-Iran hostilities and international food-price assumptions revised upward. Further decisions will depend on the updated inflation outlook.
Rate evolution
The National Bank of Moldova moved from a June 2025 hold into a 150 basis point easing cycle through December, paused at 5.00% in early 2026, and then reversed course with increases of 150 basis points in May, 50 basis points on 18 June, 50 basis points on 6 August and 150 basis points on 17 September 2026, taking the base rate applied to the main short-term monetary policy operations to 9.00%. The earlier cuts reflected moderating inflation, transmission of previous restrictive measures and disinflationary aggregate demand, while reserve-ratio reductions sought to lower credit costs and support demand.
Statements initially described risks as broadly balanced with a disinflationary bias, but by May 2026 the balance had turned inflationary as the Middle East conflict raised energy, food and raw-material prices. The June increase responded to intensifying supply pressures, stronger domestic demand and inflation above the target range, while the August move addressed consumer demand and persistent supply shocks. On 17 September, the Bank maintained a restrictive stance as adverse international energy, food and raw-material prices intensified supply pressures and household disposable income supported domestic demand. Annual inflation rose to 6.96% in August, above the upper bound of the range around the 5.0% medium-term target, while the Bank revised its inflation projection down for the third quarter of 2026 and up for the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first half of 2027 relative to its August forecast.