- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- policy rate
- 1.75%
The Executive Board of the Riksbank held the policy rate at 1.75 per cent in September, citing spare capacity and underlying inflation relatively close to 2 per cent, but said stronger economic activity and continued supply shocks require more tightening than projected in June, with increases expected to begin in 2026 if the outlook remains unchanged. The rate has remained at 1.75 per cent since September 2025, following a series of cuts from 4 per cent beginning in May 2024. The decision will apply from 30 September. Measured inflation was low in August because of temporary fiscal measures, while inflation adjusted for their direct effects was relatively close to target and is expected to rise in the near term. Second-quarter GDP grew faster than expected, partly reflecting temporary factors, and the Riksbank raised its 2026 growth forecast to 2.8 per cent, with labour-market indicators pointing to some improvement. The krona continued to weaken. Supply shocks from the war in the Middle East persisted and global cost pressures remained elevated, although the global economy had adapted to some extent. The Riksbank said signs of a larger and more persistent inflation upturn would prompt faster rate increases than currently forecast.
Rate evolution
From June 2025 to September 2026, the Riksbank lowered the policy rate from 2 per cent to 1.75 per cent, cutting in June and September 2025 and then holding it unchanged. The June cut reflected a recovery that had lost momentum, a softer inflation outlook, weak growth and high unemployment, while an August pause treated above-target inflation as temporary despite weak activity, and the September cut followed signs of easing inflation pressures even as the recovery and labour-market improvement remained delayed.
During subsequent holds through June 2026, the Riksbank said inflation had moved close to target and then below forecast while activity improved only tentatively, but uncertainty widened from trade policy and domestic demand to the war in the Middle East, energy and commodity prices, the krona and fiscal policy. On 17 June, it judged that underlying inflation was low and activity somewhat weaker than normal, but raised its policy-rate forecast somewhat and flagged a greater probability of an increase later in 2026 as war-related supply disruptions lifted inflationary pressures.
On 20 August, the Riksbank held the policy rate at 1.75 per cent, noting that growth and inflation had exceeded its June forecast but that subdued company pricing plans, fewer global supply-chain disruptions and weaker-than-expected labour-market developments left the overall outlook largely unchanged. On 24 September, it again held the rate at 1.75 per cent, but said stronger, broad-based activity and continued supply shocks meant the policy rate should rise more than projected in June, with increases expected to begin in 2026 if the outlook remained unchanged, as inflation pressures remained above normal despite measures of underlying inflation being relatively close to 2 per cent.