- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- Reference rate
- 3.75%
The Central Bank of Poland’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) kept all interest rates unchanged, including the reference rate at 3.75%, against a backdrop of higher headline inflation and uncertainty over inflation and economic activity. The reference rate had declined through 25 basis-point cuts to 4.50% in October, 4.25% in November and 4.00% in December 2025, and to 3.75% in March 2026. Consumer price inflation rose to 4.0% year on year in September, mainly due to fuel prices, while inflation excluding food and energy was estimated to have edged down. Retail sales, industrial output and construction and assembly production increased year on year in August, although enterprise-sector wage growth slowed and employment continued to fall. Globally, higher energy commodity prices have lifted inflation from early-2026 levels, while the conflict in the Middle East is creating uncertainty over activity and inflation. The MPC said future decisions would depend on incoming inflation and activity data, with fiscal policy, energy-price regulation, domestic growth and wages among the risks, and reiterated that it may intervene in the foreign exchange market.
Rate evolution
The Monetary Policy Council of the National Bank of Poland left the reference rate unchanged at 3.75% on 8 July 2026, judging that June CPI inflation had eased to 2.5% year on year from 3.1% in May, mainly on slower fuel and food price growth. The Council also noted that energy commodity prices had fallen over the previous month, including a significant decline in oil prices, while growth in the immediate environment of the Polish economy remained subdued and inflation was still higher than at the beginning of the year. Domestic data showed that retail sales, industrial output, and construction and assembly production rose on an annual basis in May, while annual wage growth in the enterprise sector was lower than in the first quarter of 2026 and employment was still declining.
The July projection, based on unchanged interest rates, put annual price growth at 2.4% to 3.3% in 2026, 1.5% to 4.0% in 2027, and 0.8% to 3.9% in 2028, while GDP growth was seen at 3.0% to 4.4%, 1.8% to 3.7%, and 1.9% to 4.1%, respectively.
On 8-9 September, the Council again held the reference rate at 3.75% after CPI inflation rose to 3.4% year on year in August from 3.0% in July, mainly due to stronger annual growth in fuel prices, while inflation excluding food and energy prices was also estimated to have increased. Annual GDP growth accelerated to 3.9% in the second quarter from 3.5% in the first, amid faster investment growth and slower consumption growth, while the Council said further decisions would depend on incoming information on inflation and economic activity, including global commodity prices and inflation, the geopolitical context, fiscal policy, domestic activity growth, and wage developments. At its 6-7 October meeting, the Council kept the reference rate unchanged at 3.75% on an annual basis.