- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- Reference interest rate
- 5.75%
The National Bank of Serbia Executive Board held the key policy rate at 5.75% on October 8, citing the inflation outlook and heightened external risks, while expecting economic growth to accelerate next year. The rate has remained at 5.75% since at least October 2025. The Executive Board also maintained the deposit and lending facility rates at 4.5% and 7.0%, respectively. Annual inflation rose to 2.2% in August and is expected to move around 4% from September, remaining within the 3% ±1.5 percentage point target band over the two-year projection horizon, although prolonged energy pressures have increased upside risks. The central bank expects growth of at least 3.2% in 2026 and around 4.5% in 2027, driven mainly by consumption and investment. It will maintain relative exchange-rate stability. Rising global oil, gas and electricity prices amid the Middle East conflict could raise production and transport costs and disrupt supply chains and capital flows. The Executive Board will remain data-dependent and use all available instruments if energy-price increases generate stronger second-round effects through inflation expectations.
Rate evolution
From June 2025 through October 2026, the National Bank of Serbia kept the key policy rate unchanged at 5.75%, extending the pause. The hold reflected actual and expected inflation and uncertainty, with mid-2025 decisions balancing weather- and drought-driven food inflation and an oil-price rise from Middle East tensions against softer domestic activity, while subsequent decisions pointed to the margin-capping decree, lower imported cost pressures, exchange-rate stability and earlier easing as lending and Serbia Expo 2027-related investment supported growth.
On 10 September 2026, the Executive Board again held the rate at 5.75%, citing actual and expected inflation and risks from the international environment, as year-on-year inflation remained within the 3±1.5% target band at 1.9% in July and real gross domestic product growth accelerated to 3.8% in the second quarter. The August projection envisaged inflation remaining within the target band over the next two years and moving around 4% from September 2026 and during 2027 before gradually declining, while core inflation stood at 4.5% in July and stronger-than-expected activity led the National Bank of Serbia to raise its 2026 growth projection to 3.2%.
On 8 October 2026, the Executive Board held the rate at 5.75%, again citing actual and expected inflation and international risks, as year-on-year inflation accelerated to 2.2% in August from 1.9% in July, mainly because of the continuing energy shock and elevated global oil prices. It said upside risks to the August inflation projection had increased because of the prolonged energy shock and a larger-than-expected rise in other global primary commodity prices, while it expected economic growth of at least 3.2% in 2026 and around 4.5% in 2027 and reiterated that the National Bank of Serbia would maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance and use all available instruments if higher global energy prices produced stronger second-round effects through inflation expectations.