- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- monetary policy rate
- 6.5%
The National Bank of Romania (NBR) kept its monetary policy rate at 6.50%, citing very high uncertainty and an expected rise in inflation through end-2026 despite substantial recent disinflation and weak economic activity. The policy rate has remained at 6.50% throughout the past year. The NBR also maintained the 7.50% Lombard facility rate, the 5.50% deposit facility rate and existing minimum reserve requirement ratios for leu- and foreign currency liabilities. Annual inflation fell to 6.17% in August from 10.42% in June as earlier energy-price and indirect-tax effects faded, while economic activity stalled quarter-on-quarter and contracted 0.4% year-on-year in Q2; private-sector credit growth also eased in August. The current account deficit widened mildly in the first seven months of 2026, while the EUR/RON exchange rate rose sharply around end-September and early October. The protracted Middle East conflict, higher oil and other commodity prices, the energy crisis and severe drought pose risks to inflation and growth. The NBR expects stronger underlying disinflationary pressure over the longer term from weaker aggregate demand and budget correction, and stands ready to use its tools to maintain medium-term price and financial stability.
Rate evolution
From July 2025 to October 2026, the National Bank of Romania kept the monetary policy rate unchanged at 6.50%, extending an uninterrupted hold. Initially, it cited rising inflation, including higher adjusted CORE2 inflation from food and energy prices, wage-cost pass-through, short-term inflation expectations and leu/euro weakness, while warning that the removal of the electricity price cap and rises in VAT rates and excise duties would cause a temporary jump and viewing fiscal correction as disinflationary over the medium term by weakening demand and narrowing external imbalances, even as activity softened and inflation neared 10% in late 2025.
On 8 July 2026, the bank again held the policy rate at 6.50% as 12-month inflation rose to 10.85% in May from 9.87% in March and adjusted CORE2 inflation increased to 8.5% from 8.2%, driven by higher natural gas, fuel and administered prices, base effects, the rise in oil prices, a notable increase in rents for state-owned housing, and the indirect effects of costlier fuels, the increase in the EUR/RON exchange rate and some import prices amid high short-term inflation expectations. Uncertainty remained very high because of the domestic political situation, potential future budget-consolidation measures, the Middle East conflict and the global energy shock, even as the bank noted that economic activity stalled in 2026 Q1 after contracting in 2025 Q4, saw a slight recovery in 2026 Q2, and continued to expect inflation to decline substantially in 2026 Q3 as the direct effects of the removal of the electricity price cap and the increases in VAT rates and excise duties faded, with underlying disinflationary pressures from aggregate demand strengthening amid budget correction. On 10 August 2026, the National Bank of Romania maintained the policy rate at 6.50% as inflation declined to 10.42% in June, largely due to lower volatile food and fuel prices, while adjusted CORE2 inflation stood at 8.3%, and reaffirmed that inflation would correct substantially in 2026 Q3 before gradually declining and re-entering the target variation band at end-2027 amid a widening aggregate demand deficit, while flagging risks from electricity, food and oil prices, the severe drought, fiscal policy, the Middle East conflict and the energy crisis.
On 8 October 2026, the National Bank of Romania again held the policy rate at 6.50% after inflation fell to 6.17% in August from 10.42% in June as the direct effects of the removal of the electricity price cap and increases in VAT rates and excise duties faded, while adjusted CORE2 inflation dropped to 6.2% from 8.3% on tax-related base effects, lower agri-food commodity prices and weaker consumer demand. It expected inflation to rise through end-2026, mainly due to higher fuel, energy and other commodity prices amid the protracted Middle East conflict and severe drought, as well as leu exchange rate developments, but saw stronger underlying disinflationary pressures over the longer horizon from aggregate demand as budget correction continued, while citing very high uncertainty over domestic politics and future fiscal consolidation and risks from the conflict and energy crisis.