- Decision
- Lower
- Rate change
- 50 bps
- base rate
- 15.75%
The National Bank of Kazakhstan’s Monetary Policy Committee cut the base rate by 50 basis points to 15.75%, citing sustained declines in inflation and inflation expectations while retaining moderately tight monetary conditions, extending an easing cycle begun in June from 18%. The interest-rate corridor remained at ±1 percentage point. Annual inflation slowed to 9.3% in September, although underlying price pressures persisted, and policy remained aimed at returning inflation to the 5% target by 2028. Preliminary data showed gross domestic product grew 4.2% in January–September 2026, led by construction, manufacturing and transport. Normalising consumer lending growth moderated consumption growth, but fiscal and quasi-fiscal stimulus continued to support strong domestic demand. Favourable tenge exchange-rate dynamics also supported disinflation. External conditions remained inflationary as Middle East tensions sustained high energy prices, global food prices rose and global monetary conditions tightened. With risks tilted toward higher inflation and utility-tariff base effects potentially lifting annual inflation near year-end, the central bank said further rate changes were unlikely before the end of 2026 and additional cuts would depend on sustained easing of price pressures.
Rate evolution
Over the period, the National Bank of Kazakhstan raised the base rate by 150 basis points from 16.5% to 18.0%, holding through mid-2025 before tightening in October 2025 and then leaving policy unchanged into April 2026. The early holds reflected persistent inflation and a risk balance that turned increasingly pro-inflationary, as tariff reforms, fuel liberalisation, strong consumer demand, retail lending and fiscal stimulus kept demand above supply, while volatile expectations and external pressures from global food prices, Russia, trade frictions and geopolitical tensions added to price growth. After inflation exceeded forecast and monetary conditions were judged to have loosened, the Bank raised the rate.
With annual inflation easing to 10.4% in May from a 12.9% peak in September 2025 and the 2026 forecast revised down to 9.0% to 11.0%, the National Bank of Kazakhstan cut the base rate by 100 basis points to 17.0% on 5 June and by a further 25 basis points to 16.75% on 24 July as inflation edged down to 10.3% in June, while warning that underlying price pressures required confirmation. On 4 September, it lowered the rate by 50 basis points to 16.25% as annual inflation slowed for an eleventh month to 9.8% in August and one-year inflation expectations fell to 12.1% in July, but said scope for further cuts was limited after raising its 2027 inflation forecast to 6.5% to 8.5% and assessing that risks had shifted in a pro-inflationary direction amid stronger fiscal stimulus, unstable expectations, fuel and utility prices, and global food and energy costs.
On 23 October, the National Bank of Kazakhstan cut the base rate by another 50 basis points to 15.75% as annual inflation slowed for a twelfth month to 9.3% in September and one-year household inflation expectations fell to 11.8%, but judged further rate changes unlikely through the end of 2026 given persistent price pressures and pro-inflationary risks, with further cuts conditional on a sustained easing of price pressures.