- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- policy rate
- 14%
The Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan held its key rate at 14% per annum, citing persistent inflation risks from strong domestic demand and changing external conditions despite declining inflation expectations, following holds at the same level from December 2025 through September 2026. Money market interest rates remained close to the key rate. Annual headline inflation edged up to 6.4% in September, driven by fruit and vegetable prices, fuel and some services. The central bank projected inflation at around 7% by end-2026 and at its 5% target by end-2027. It raised its economic growth forecast to around 8% for 2026, while warning that aggregate demand continued to exceed production capacity, sustaining inflationary pressures. Positive real interest rates on national-currency deposits and loans supported savings and restrained demand. Global food-price volatility and energy-price risks could slow disinflation through import prices, processing and transportation costs. The central bank will maintain tight monetary conditions to limit the secondary effects of supply shocks on other prices and inflation expectations and sustain the downward inflation trend.
Rate evolution
From June 2025 to November 2026, the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan kept the policy rate at 14%, maintaining a tight stance as inflation slowed only gradually, core and services inflation remained elevated, expectations exceeded actual inflation, and robust demand drew support from credit growth, fiscal spending, remittances, investment and high activity.
By late 2025 and January 2026, it judged disinflation to be broadening as exchange-rate appreciation, lower import-price pressure and tighter monetary conditions pushed core inflation down and led to lower inflation forecasts, but services inflation, retail lending and resilient consumer demand still warranted tight policy, even as it said rate cuts could be considered if inflation and expectations kept falling. In March and April 2026, the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan said price stabilization had slowed, food-price inflation and producer prices were adding pressure, expectations remained above forecast, growth and aggregate demand had strengthened further, and geopolitical tensions were increasing oil, food, supply-chain and logistics risks, so it kept the policy rate at 14% and said conditions could be tightened further if inflation or expectations threatened progress towards the 5% target. At its 17 June and 29 July meetings, it again held the rate at 14% as headline inflation fell to 5.5% in May as energy-tariff base effects faded, then rose to 6.4% in June following higher regulated energy tariffs and coal price liberalization, while core inflation remained at 5.7% and strong demand, fiscal spending and external food, energy and logistics risks warranted tight conditions.
The 16 September decision kept the policy rate at 14% as headline inflation slowed to 6.2% in August and core inflation reached around 5.5%, but a growing share of goods and services recorded price increases above 5%, expectations declined more slowly than headline inflation, and active consumption and investment demand, external cost pressures and potential second-round effects from regulated-price liberalization outweighed moderating credit growth and lower import-price pressure from real effective exchange-rate appreciation. On 4 November 2026, the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan again held the policy rate at 14%, noting that September headline inflation had edged up to 6.4%, services inflation had reached 7% and core inflation had stayed at 5.5%, while demand exceeding production capacity and external food and energy price risks required continued tight conditions to contain second-round effects despite falling inflation expectations, with headline inflation projected at around 7% by end-2026 and at the 5% target by end-2027.