- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- Reference rate
- 3.75%
The Central Bank of Poland’s Monetary Policy Council held its reference rate at 3.75% in November 2026 amid easing inflation and signs of slower economic growth, following 25-basis-point cuts to 4.25% in November 2025, 4.00% in December and the current level in March 2026. The lombard and deposit rates remained at 4.25% and 3.25%, respectively. According to Statistics Poland’s flash estimate, consumer price inflation declined to 3.5% year-on-year in October, mainly reflecting lower fuel prices compared with September. Inflation excluding food and energy was also estimated to have decreased. Available data suggested annual gross domestic product growth slowed in the third quarter. However, the November projection, prepared under an unchanged-interest-rate assumption, shifted the inflation ranges for 2027 and 2028 higher compared with July. High energy commodity prices kept global inflation elevated, while the conflict in the Middle East remained a source of uncertainty for global activity and inflation. The Council said further decisions would depend on incoming information about inflation and economic activity, highlighting fiscal policy, energy-price regulation, wage growth and external developments as risks to the inflation outlook. The central bank reiterated its commitment to ensuring inflation consistent with its medium-term target and retained the option of foreign-exchange intervention.
Rate evolution
The Monetary Policy Council of the National Bank of Poland left the reference rate unchanged at 3.75% on 8 July 2026, judging that June CPI inflation had eased to 2.5% year on year from 3.1% in May, mainly on slower fuel and food price growth. The July projection, based on unchanged interest rates, put annual price growth at 2.4% to 3.3% in 2026, 1.5% to 4.0% in 2027, and 0.8% to 3.9% in 2028, while GDP growth was seen at 3.0% to 4.4%, 1.8% to 3.7%, and 1.9% to 4.1%, respectively.
On 8-9 September, the Council again held the reference rate at 3.75% after CPI inflation rose to 3.4% year on year in August from 3.0% in July, mainly due to stronger annual growth in fuel prices, and kept the rate unchanged at its 6-7 October meeting.
At its 3-4 November 2026 meeting, the Council again held the reference rate at 3.75%, noting that October CPI inflation had declined to 3.5% year on year from 4.1% in September, mainly due to lower fuel prices compared with September, while available data suggested annual GDP growth had slowed in the third quarter. The November projection, based on unchanged interest rates, gave 50% probability ranges for annual price growth of 3.1% to 3.2% in 2026, 3.1% to 5.3% in 2027, and 1.4% to 4.4% in 2028, and for GDP growth of 3.2% to 4.1%, 1.9% to 3.8%, and 1.7% to 3.9%, respectively. Further decisions would depend on incoming information on inflation and economic activity, with the Council highlighting global commodity prices and inflation, the geopolitical context, fiscal policy, regulatory decisions on energy prices, domestic activity growth, and wage developments as risks to the inflation outlook.