- Decision
- Raise
- Rate change
- 25 bps
- policy rate
- 2%
The Riksbank raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2%, citing stronger economic activity and supply-driven cost increases expected to push inflation higher. The move follows holds at 1.75% from November 2025 through September 2026 and takes effect on 11 November 2026. Inflation measured by the consumer price index with a fixed interest rate (CPIF) was 1.5% in September, held down by temporary fiscal measures. The underlying measure excluding their direct effects and energy prices was 1.6%, slightly below forecast, although indicators showed cost pressures remained above normal. Preliminary data showed gross domestic product and employment rose in the third quarter, in line with forecasts, and economic conditions are expected to return to normal next year. The central bank expects both CPIF and underlying inflation to rise above its 2% target next year, reflecting stronger activity, supply-related cost increases and a weaker krona in 2026. Globally, supply disruptions linked to the war in the Middle East have kept inflationary pressures elevated, with energy prices and inflation abroad rising further. The Riksbank said further rate increases in the coming year are likely if the inflation and economic outlook holds, in line with its September policy-rate forecast.
Rate evolution
From June 2025 to September 2026, the Riksbank lowered the policy rate from 2 per cent to 1.75 per cent, cutting in June 2025 as the recovery lost momentum and the inflation outlook softened, pausing in August as it judged above-target inflation temporary, and cutting again in September as inflation pressures eased but the recovery and labour-market improvement remained delayed.
During subsequent holds through June 2026, the Riksbank said inflation had moved close to target and then below forecast while activity improved only tentatively, but uncertainty widened from trade policy and domestic demand to the war in the Middle East, energy and commodity prices, the krona and fiscal policy. On 17 June, it judged that underlying inflation was low and activity somewhat weaker than normal, but raised its policy-rate forecast somewhat and flagged a greater probability of an increase later in 2026 as war-related supply disruptions lifted inflationary pressures.
On 20 August, the Riksbank held the policy rate at 1.75 per cent, noting that growth and inflation had exceeded its June forecast but that subdued company pricing plans, fewer global supply-chain disruptions and weaker-than-expected labour-market developments left the overall outlook largely unchanged. On 24 September, it again held the rate at 1.75 per cent, but said stronger, broad-based activity and continued supply shocks meant the policy rate should rise more than projected in June, with increases expected to begin in 2026 if the outlook remained unchanged, as inflation pressures remained above normal despite measures of underlying inflation being relatively close to 2 per cent.
Stronger economic activity, cost increases from supply disruptions and a weaker krona prompted the Riksbank to raise the policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 2 per cent on 4 November 2026, effective from 11 November 2026, and signal that further increases were likely if the outlook for inflation and economic activity held, in line with its September forecast.