- Decision
- Raise
- Rate change
- 200 bps
- base rate
- 11%
The National Bank of Moldova unanimously raised its base rate by 200 basis points to 11%, citing intensifying inflationary pressures, robust domestic demand and an upwardly revised inflation outlook. The increase followed a reduction from 6% in November 2025 to 5% in December and renewed tightening from May 2026. Overnight lending, deposit and repo rates also rose, while reserve requirements remained unchanged. Annual inflation reached 8.6% in September, exceeding the tolerance band of ±1.5 percentage points around the medium-term target of 5%. The central bank expects inflation to rise through the end of 2026, decline from the first quarter of 2027 and return within the band in the third quarter of 2027. Larger anticipated adjustments to regulated tariffs and higher international energy and food prices contributed to the upward forecast revision. Sectoral indicators showed positive economic activity in the third quarter, while excess liquidity declined but remained relatively high. Geopolitical and trade tensions, energy-security risks and supply-chain vulnerabilities continued to pose external inflation risks. The central bank said it would monitor domestic and external developments and use its instruments as necessary to restore and maintain price stability.
Rate evolution
The National Bank of Moldova moved from a June 2025 hold into a 150 basis point easing cycle through December, paused at 5.00% in early 2026, and then reversed course with increases of 150 basis points in May, 50 basis points on 18 June, 50 basis points on 6 August and 150 basis points on 17 September 2026, taking the base rate applied to the main short-term monetary policy operations to 9.00%. The earlier cuts reflected moderating inflation, transmission of previous restrictive measures and disinflationary aggregate demand, while reserve-ratio reductions sought to lower credit costs and support demand.
Statements initially described risks as broadly balanced with a disinflationary bias, but by May 2026 the balance had turned inflationary as the Middle East conflict raised energy, food and raw-material prices, while the June and August increases addressed domestic demand and persistent supply pressures. On 17 September, the National Bank of Moldova maintained a restrictive stance as adverse international energy, food and raw-material prices intensified supply pressures and household disposable income supported domestic demand.
On 5 November 2026, the National Bank of Moldova raised the policy rate by 200 basis points to 11.00%, citing accelerating inflation, robust domestic demand and an upward revision to its inflation forecast that indicated greater risks of inflation persisting above earlier projections. Annual inflation reached 8.60% in September, above the upper bound of the ±1.5 percentage point range around the 5.0% medium-term target, while the November forecast raised average annual inflation projections to 7.3% for 2026 and 6.9% for 2027 and envisaged a return to the target range in the third quarter of 2027.