- Decision
- Maintain
- Rate change
- 0 bps
- monetary policy rate
- 6.5%
The National Bank of Romania held its policy rate at 6.50% amid renewed inflation pressures and high uncertainty over the economic outlook, extending the unchanged stance recorded since November 2025. The central bank also retained the lending facility rate at 7.50%, the deposit facility rate at 5.50% and existing reserve requirement ratios on domestic- and foreign-currency liabilities. Annual inflation rose to 6.94% in October 2026, mainly reflecting further fuel price increases. The central bank projects a slight further rise in the final months of 2026 before inflation gradually declines and returns to its target band in the first quarter of 2028, supported by disinflationary base effects and weak aggregate demand. Economic activity stagnated in the second quarter of 2026, while recent indicators point to a moderate recovery over the second half, partly supported by agriculture. Private-sector credit growth remained at 8.2% year-on-year in September. The current account deficit widened year-on-year over the first eight months of 2026, reversing the improvement recorded in the first half. The Middle East conflict and energy crisis remained significant risks to growth, inflation and financing costs. The central bank reiterated its readiness to use available instruments to secure medium-term price stability while safeguarding financial stability.
Rate evolution
From July 2025 to November 2026, the National Bank of Romania kept the monetary policy rate unchanged at 6.50%, extending an uninterrupted hold. Initially, it cited rising inflation, including higher adjusted CORE2 inflation from food and energy prices, wage-cost pass-through, short-term inflation expectations and RON depreciation against the EUR, while warning that the removal of the electricity price cap and rises in value-added tax (VAT) rates and excise duties would cause a temporary jump and viewing fiscal correction as disinflationary over the medium term by weakening demand and narrowing external imbalances, even as activity softened and inflation neared 10% in late 2025.
On 8 July 2026, the bank again held the policy rate at 6.50% as 12-month inflation rose to 10.85% in May from 9.87% in March and adjusted CORE2 inflation increased to 8.5% from 8.2%, amid higher natural gas, fuel and administered prices, base effects and exchange rate pressures, before maintaining the rate on 10 August 2026 as inflation declined to 10.42% in June, largely due to lower volatile food and fuel prices, while adjusted CORE2 inflation stood at 8.3%. On 8 October 2026, the National Bank of Romania again held the policy rate at 6.50% after inflation fell to 6.17% in August from 10.42% in June as the direct effects of the removal of the electricity price cap and increases in VAT rates and excise duties faded, while adjusted CORE2 inflation dropped to 6.2% from 8.3% on tax-related base effects, lower agri-food commodity prices and weaker consumer demand.
On 12 November 2026, the National Bank of Romania maintained the policy rate at 6.50% as inflation rose to 6.94% in October from 6.61% in September, mainly due to further fuel price increases and higher volatile food prices, while adjusted CORE2 inflation had remained at 6.2% in September. It expected inflation to rise slightly in the final months of 2026 before declining gradually and re-entering the target band in 2028 Q1, supported by disinflationary base effects from the 2026 energy shock and severe drought and stronger disinflationary pressures from the aggregate demand deficit, while flagging uncertainty over electricity and oil prices, future fiscal consolidation, the Middle East conflict and the energy crisis.