The Agency for Regulation and Development of the Financial Market of the Republic of Kazakhstan highlighted S&P Global Ratings’ decision to revise the trend on its assessment of industry risk in Kazakhstan’s banking sector to positive from stable, attributing the shift to strengthened regulation and supervision in recent years. S&P pointed to ongoing asset quality reviews (AQRs), the transition to a Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP) supervisory model, measures to limit risk in banks’ activities, and steps to monitor the growth rate of consumer lending. The agency expects retail credit growth to slow to 18–20% by end-2025 and cited sector resilience to macroeconomic risks, alongside problem loan ratios of 5.5–6.0% in 2025 and reserve coverage of about 55%. S&P also noted plans for 2026 to introduce a new mechanism for handling insolvent banks, including a minimum level of liabilities for systemically important banks that would be subject to conversion into capital, and indicated further progress on regulatory and supervisory initiatives could support additional improvements in the industry risk assessment.
Agency for Regulation and Development of the Financial Market of the Republic of Kazakhstan 2025-12-08
Agency for Regulation and Development of the Financial Market of the Republic of Kazakhstan reports S&P upgrade of banking sector industry risk trend to positive
The Agency for Regulation and Development of the Financial Market of the Republic of Kazakhstan reported S&P Global Ratings' upgrade of Kazakhstan's banking sector industry risk trend to positive from stable, citing enhanced regulation and supervision. Key factors include asset quality reviews, the transition to a Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process model, and measures to control consumer lending growth. S&P anticipates retail credit growth to slow to 18–20% by end-2025, with problem loan ratios at 5.5–6.0% and reserve coverage around 55%.